No experiments this Autumn, Warren, we need winning run
WORLD Rugby’s current rankings have Wales in third place, behind only Ireland and New Zealand. Now it’s time for Warren Gatland’s side to play like they truly belong among the game’s elite.
In my mind, Wales must aim for a semi-final spot in Japan as a minimum requirement.
Reaching the last four is a more than realistic target and the current rankings suggest that too.
The key thing is how Warren manages the next 12 months. This is where I go back to the point that Wales have to start playing like the third best team in the world. I’m sure I wasn’t the only one who was surprised to see us jump to those dizzy heights following the summer tour win over South Africa and the two Test series victories in Argentina.
It’s a ranking which might not last for long because it’s very tight from third down to seventh. The challenge for Wales is to stay as high as possible for as long as possible.
The mentality you need to have going into a World Cup year is that you’re capable of beating any other team on the planet.
Wales need to approach this year with exactly that attitude and if they do that with the players they have, then performances and results will follow. So too, will a high world ranking.
Winning is everything with Japan around the corner and I’m not buying the thoughts of those who argue the Autumn and Six Nations is about experimenting and finding our best XV. What a load of rubbish.
In the past I’ve argued for Warren to rotate his team and have a look at new players and he has seemed reluctant to do so. This time it’s different and here’s why.
Wales have already looked at their next generation of young players in the summer and the huge success of that tour means we now know who Warren has to choose from for Japan.
I don’t really see many players who are yet to feature for Wales being in the frame, although maybe guys like Jarrod Evans, Keelan Giles and Owen Lane would have a case for selection.
But having experimented in June, it’s all about winning in November this year because the last thing Wales want in a World Cup year is a string of defeats.
I want Warren’s boys to send a message to the other teams out there: ‘We’ve got to third in the world and we intend to stay there by producing winning rugby and dominant on-field displays.’
With Scotland, Australia, Tonga and South Africa arriving at the Principality Stadium later this year, the aim has to be to end 2018 with four straight wins. To do so would be massive ahead of 2019.
The other reason I want Wales to cancel the experimentation and ensure a run of winning rugby is that the Autumn is a very good way of replicating the pool stages at a World Cup.
Of course we must also banish the Australian hoodoo as well!
Wales will face the Wallabies both in Japan and in a few months time and we can’t expect to go to a World Cup and top our pool without having beaten them before.
As a player, you need to get rid of those sorts of demons before you meet on the big stage.
It’s now 13 defeats in a row against the men in Green and Gold and psychologically that must be cutting the players to bits.
It was the same with South Africa. It had been 16 straight reversals to the Springboks before Wales edged past them 12-6 in 2014 and since then, we’ve beaten them on three of four occasions.
Of course the one defeat among those games is the one that mattered – the 2015 World Cup quarter-final – but the point here is that Wales now believe they can beat South Africa.
We have to have that belief ingrained in us from the moment we land in Japan and that will only arrive by beating Australia on November 10.
If that happens, we can then go into Pool D with confidence and with the aim of coming out on top. There’s no doubt in my mind Wales have the quality to topple the best sides. The only team I can’t see us beating at the moment are the All Blacks.
You only have to take one look at the players available to Warren to see Wales can topple almost anyone, especially with the way our top guys have started the new season.
Alun Wyn Jones, George North, Leigh Halfpenny and Hadleigh Parkes have all begun the PRO14 campaign like they’ve never been away. All of the more senior guys know they’ve got plenty to prove with the young whippersnappers eager to make an impression.
Every player in Warren’s squad has serious competition for their place. That’s the sign of a good squad. Someone like Alun Wyn is guaranteed to be in Japan barring injury, but you can also bet your bottom dollar he won’t be playing like that this season.
He’ll know guys like Jake Ball, Cory Hill, Seb Davies and Adam Beard will be pushing him all the way.
Alun Wyn knows you have to treat every game like a World Cup final. Whether you’re facing Connacht away on a wet night in Galway or the All Blacks, you have to perform at the same top level.
That’s the mindset you have to have as a player in a World Cup year because if you drop your performance even slightly, in this Wales squad you’ll be out like a light.
The time for top level performances and results is upon us.
Everyone keeps saying there’s a long way to go until Japan. To a degree they’re right, but at the same time there are only 13 games left for Wales to impress before they start their World Cup odyssey.
Time is of the essence. Wales must start winning and winning now because momentum is everything.
An Autumn clean sweep followed by another impressive Six Nations campaign going into the World Cup warm-up clashes is more than realistic and, who knows, it could be lucky 13 for Warren in his last year in charge?
What a way that would be for him to end his Wales journey.