All Blacks in Dublin is the litmus Test
BRENDAN GALLAGHER looks ahead to another jam-packed schedule to thrill us this Autumn
“Two wins is the absolute minimum for Jones to survive, three a decent run, four a minor miracle”
ACCORDING to my maths there is as much international rugby in the next six week – 48 games if you include a couple of Tier 2 games against club opposition – as we will witness in the same time span at RWC2019, so to say this Autumn is busy would be a massive understatement. We’ve never had it so good.
With so many sides at different stages of their development less than a year out from the World Cup, making sense of it all is going to be tricky. But let’s try anyway.
For all the hype about the England v New Zealand game, the undoubted highlight of the Autumn will come a week later when the All Blacks travel to Dublin to play Ireland. World ranked one against two, World Cup favourites against second favourites, Grand Slam winners against Rugby Championship holders – a match to truly savour.
New Zealand, contrary to some perceptions, respect all opponents – that’s one of the reasons they are so successful – but I fancy Ireland are possibly the only team Steve Hansen loses sleep over. They have consistently fronted up against the All Blacks in recent seasons and, of course, have that famous win in Chicago under their belts.
An enviable strength in depth underpins both teams, but injuries to key players can still hurt and you wonder how the possible absence of Conor Murray might play out for Ireland. Along with Johnny Sexton he has been fundamental during Ireland’s recent halcyon run.
England? The pressure is on. Eddie Jones can’t settle on his first-choice team which could be construed as worrying, key positions are up for grabs and there is a considerable injury list although he is not alone there as Warren Gatland, Gregor Townsend and Conor O’Shea will testify.
That England win over South Africa in Cape Town eased the pressure a little but if it all goes badly pearshaped this Autumn it will all get very edgy again. Two victories is the absolute minimum for Jones to survive, three would be a decent return, four a minor miracle.
Strangely, performing well in the Autumn has never been a pre-requisite for Wales putting together strong Six Nations and World Cup campaigns.
The Welsh have invariably been average at best before Christmas – it’s one of rugby’s little mysteries – but surely with the players at his disposal Gatland would love to see his side cause some damage this time round. Two wins in Argentina in June demonstrate just how much strength in depth he can now call on. Australia and South Africa will be the litmus test for the Welsh, Scotland an intriguing one off and a stronger than usual Tonga a potential banana skin.
Scotland, without the inspiration of Stuart Hogg at full-back and John Barclay up front, face a tough run against Wales, Argentina and South Africa, while Fiji are a potential banana skin although there will be no danger of complacency after the Scots’ defeat in Suva last year.
France, rather like Wales, are not noted for being at their best in the Autumn but Jacques Brunel and his team are badly in need of a statement victory against somebody of note. They enjoyed no luck whatsoever in New Zealand and are a better team than that comprehensive 3-0 series defeat would suggest. South Africa in Paris first up is the game they really want to win. Beat the Boks and the Pumas and Fiji could find it tough going against Les Blues.
Italy face a gruesome fixture list but the game that will attract most attention is their match against Georgia in Florence. Of course it will not really prove anything in terms of who is most worthy of a Six Nations place – it’s the entire tournament that needs to be restructured – but that won’t stop it being portrayed as such. Expect a very passionate fiesty affair.
Of the so-called T2 nations, Fiji face the most testing programme with matches against Scotland and France as well as a game with Uruguay at Hartpury – a real treat for locals down that way. With their vast number of professional players overseas, Fiji still look the most likely ‘smaller’ rugby nation to make a breakthrough in the coming years but pulling it all together in short time is still a challenge.
Alas for them Nemani Nadolo is injured but although the man mountain will be missed Fiji have sensational wings coming out of the woodwork, it is the position they are best equipped to cover.
Tonga are also very much on the up and are rewarded with a tougher fixture list than usual with matches against the French Barbarians, Wales and Georgia away in Tbilisi. Also showing considerable improvement are the US Eagles under Gary Gold and their visit to the Aviva is the undoubted highlight of their Autumn which also takes in games against Samoa and the Maori All Blacks.
For the rugby tourist looking for a cheeky little break from the highoctane big stadium T1 clashes there is a peach of a trip in the making if you fancy a late Autumn mini break in autumnal Provence.
The World Cup repechage in the cosy Stade Delort Marseille offers up six very intriguing matches in 12 days of snarling tournament action with the winner of the quadrangular shoot out booking the 20th and last place in