>> Guscott: Manu can swing it England’s way
“South Africa are my dark horses for the World Cup. Rassie Erasmus has taken some huge scalps”
England finished 2018 with optimism restored after some impressive displays in the Autumn that offer hope of a better Six Nations than the last one. There were glimpses of their recovery in South Africa during the summer when they played some fantastic rugby in the opening hour of the first and second Tests but then lost their lungs – not that they admitted to that. And then they sealed a memorable win in the third with that late Danny Cipriani cross kick for Jonny May’s try to ensure it was not a whitewash.
While they narrowly lost to New Zealand in the Autumn, the face of the international game changed significantly this year; notably after Ireland’s victory over the All Blacks the week after. With South Africa also defeating the All Blacks, and Wales and England both then seeing off the Boks, the Kiwis are no longer such a daunting prospect. It’s getting to the point where all the top teams can beat each other – well almost.
New Zealand are still ranked first in the world but in my opinion Ireland are now the best team on the planet after that win in Dublin. That was by far the best match of the year. It was rugby at its finest – gladiatorial, unrelenting, with high skill levels and low errors and penalties.
The way Ireland, Leinster and Saracens go about their business has been one of my highlights of the year. All three have seemed to take a leaf out of the All Blacks’ book and play smart, simple rugby – they do what needs to be done.
Ireland have a mastermind in Joe Schmidt and an expert practitioner in Johnny Sexton to realise the gameplan. Saracens are similar with Mark McCall and Owen Farrell. The players receive clear messages during the week as to how they want to play and then go out on a Saturday and execute.
And because it is such an efficient way of playing they seem to need only a Plan A, with minor tweaks as to the amount of kicking and running. These teams have a wonderful connection between coach and players – highly skilled and clever players – who understand the intensity and commitment required to implement the gameplan. Exeter are almost there, but not quite.
While it is a great thrill to watch these top teams execute, the gap is widening in the Premiership between the top two and the rest and as much as the league is entertaining, I find it so hugely frustrating that the other ten teams in the league can’t match the consistency of Saracens and Exeter.
The rest make high error counts and give away too penalties and it happens week in, week out. Why is it not changing? Coaches must demand more of their players to cut out the silly mistakes. Unfortunately I can’t see that bit changing in 2019 but it would be amazing if a few other teams kicked on.
Gloucester are the next best and it’s clear the players are buying into Johan Ackermann’s vision as he builds a mini Boks team in the West Country. They are getting more consistency to their game and Cipriani looks to have been an astute signing.
They are best placed to rival the top two but I can’t see Wasps really threatening while they keep playing the way they do. They are thrilling to watch but their mentality of ‘we’ll score more tries than you’ will come unstuck against the best-drilled teams with immaculate defence systems. They are still too inconsistent and leak too many tries. And the Premiership really needs to have strong Leicester and Bath sides, back at their powerful, physical best.
There is a lot of quality in the Premiership but my big fear for next year is that the England players will not be as well looked after as their Celtic counterparts, or the big guns from Down Under. England will have a great chance at the World Cup if they keep their best players mentally and physically fresh – but without central contracts there is less chance of this for Eddie Jones than his rival coaches.
Player welfare has been the en vogue subject for some time and it’s now imperative the message is received loud and clear and they get enough rest between now and then because it’s simple – the nations with better welfare will be better in Japan. And we are talking about a group of maybe 45 players in with a shout. These guys must be looked after because at present England are behind the others in this area.
The Six Nations offers us the first litmus test as to how the Home Unions are shaping up. Ireland are favourites and it will take a very good team to take the Championship from them. They host England but must travel to Cardiff and an away win there will truly show they are the real deal. Winning at home is one thing, doing it away is a lot harder and brings much more of a psychological boost.
Should anyone topple Ireland they will immediately be seen as genuine contenders in Japan.
Wales deserve to be No.3 in the world and will take huge confidence from victories over South Africa and Australia. Hadleigh Parkes and Jonathan Davies are now a top international centre partnership and, with George North back to form, they offer a physical threat.
That’s another huge plus from last year for England – the return to fitness of Manu Tuilagi. Along with Ben Te’o and Joe Cokanasiga out wide, England have physical beasts in the backline again. And I’d be surprised if any flyhalf in the world wouldn’t want one of these giants in their armoury – it just offers you so many more options.
Ireland have the power of Robbie Henshaw and Bundee Aki through the middle, and Jacob Stockdale out wide, but Scotland still lack that. Fly-half Finn Russell could be key to Scotland’s development. His move to Racing 92 means he must develop his game and learn how to use a big, powerful pack in front of him. He’s great going forward but he needs to learn how to manage a match better and vary his tactics.
While Ireland are the best team right now to my mind, South Africa are my dark horses for the World Cup. Rassie Erasmus has not been in the job long but has already taken some huge scalps. A series win over England in the summer preceded a victory over New Zealand and they should have backed that up with another win over the Kiwis away from home.
The fact they failed to do so shows they are not quite there yet – but in nine months’ time they should be at another level with Faf de Klerk and Hendre Pollard pulling the strings behind a behemoth pack including Malcolm Marx and Eben Etzebeth. They have so much power running through that team they will be a handful in Japan.
Next year promises to be a cracker, with a small handful of teams genuine contenders for the showpiece event in Japan.