The north are truly a force to be feared

AT a time when ‘Happy New Year’ is the most popular phrase in the Western world, the coaches, players and supporters of each of the four home Unions will be hoping that 2019 is their time to win the World Cup.

But if Ireland, England, Wales and Scotland all have genuine aspirations of becoming world champions in Yokohama nine months from now, it can only be a happy new year for one of them.

And if the near-monopoly of World Cup winners by the Southern Hemisphere big three of New Zealand, South Africa and Australia continues, none of the above will get their name inscribed on the Webb Ellis trophy in any case.

The World Cup will reveal whether the rise of the Northern nations we saw in the Autumn, with Ireland leading the charge, is a seismic shift, or a small blip.

The biggest issue Ireland have faced in their desire to emulate England’s 2003 World Cup triumph is that they found it impossible to go from underdogs to favourites.

That notion was buried over the course of 2018 when Ireland made light of the burden of being favourites and emerged triumphant, not only becoming Six Nations Grand Slam champions, but beating all-comers from both hemispheres.

The most notable of those Irish victories was over New Zealand six weeks ago, and it confirmed them as one of the favourites to win the 2019 tournament. However, with the Six Nations imminent, the Irish will have to reaffirm they are as comfortable being the side that are hunted as when they are among the hunters.

The only other psychological immunity Ireland have left to develop is the one that helps them to dodge the dreaded boom-bust virus. Their Kiwi coach, Joe Schmidt, has a case study right under his nose given the way that England plummeted from the heights of a 2016 Grand Slam, and a 17-Test winning run, to finish the 2018 Six Nations in fifth place – and follow it with a tour defeat against an inexperienced South Africa side.

Ireland have an airbag to protect them against such a crash in the form of central contracts.

It enables them to cotton-wool key tacticians like fly-half Johnny Sexton and his scrum-half partner Conor Murray, with Leinster and Munster happy to do Schmidt’s bidding. Eddie Jones has no such luxury with the Premiership clubs.

The knock-on effect is that Jones has less control over the training and strength and conditioning programmes they undergo.

This means that fatigue and injury are more likely to strike, and over the past year Jones has had to select from a severely depleted squad.

The development of greater strength-in-depth during Schmidt’s tenure has given the Irish squad a greater layer of insulation against injury than they have had at any stage during the pro era.

But even so the rate of attrition in the big-bash modern game suggests that despite their advanced player welfare culture Ireland have enjoyed a charmed life on the injury front.

As with any team, there are players that Ireland cannot afford to lose.

Foremost among them is Sexton, because, talented as Joey Carbury is, he simply does not have the seen-it done-it tactical savvy that the Leinster talisman possesses. Yet Sexton will be 34 by the time the tournament kicks off and he is in the most exposed position on the pitch.

Ireland also have in tight-head Tadhg Furlong and 22-year-old lock James Ryan two world-class forwards whose influence they would struggle to duplicate in the event of injury.

By comparison England have lost their biggest ball-carrying forward, Billy Vunipola, for most of the last two years, while their most powerful back, Manu Tuilagi, has only just returned to fitness after being absent for twice as long.

Vunipola’s No.8 understudy Nathan Hughes has also been in and out of surgery and rehab, as has openside Sam Underhill, while backrow utility Sam Simmonds is unavailable until the end of the season. Others who have been absent for significant periods are locks George Kruis and Joe Launchbury, centre Ben Te’o and outside backs Anthony Watson and Jonathan Joseph. Those sidelined to a lesser extent include Maro Itoje, Mako Vunipola, Kyle Sinckler, Chris Robshaw and Tom Curry.

However, if England looked like a busted flush at times last season, the Autumn series brought renewed hope. After Jones was forced into changes he should have considered a year earlier – such as Owen Farrell at 10, Ben Moon at loose-head, Sinckler and Harry Williams at tight-head, and Mark Wilson in the back row – and at last found a Test No.7 in Underhill, things are looking up.

Whether they are sufficiently rosy for England to beat Ireland in Dublin in the opening round at the Six Nations is another matter.

Ireland’s strongest Test 23 looks to have an edge on what England can muster.

Yet, if England can dent Joe Schmidt’s outfit – in the same way they did to the All Blacks a week before they were beaten in Dublin – then Ireland’s trip to play Scotland at Murrayfield a week later could be a minefield.

Scotland are better than they have been for decades, and with Gregor Townsend pulling the coaching strings the Scots will not want to waste the chance of sowing seeds of doubt in the Irish in the last encounter between the teams before their crucial World Cup Pool A opener in late September.

Last for Ireland, will be their visit to Cardiff in the final round of the Six Nations. Just as the Irish have been buoyed by their unbeaten Autumn, so have Wales. Warren Gatland has been steadily adding reserve strength to his Welsh squad and, as a master of the ambush, has been happy to let Ireland be the focus of attention.

However, it will not have been lost on Gatland – or on Eddie Jones – that when the Bath forwards went hammer and tongs at Leinster’s allIreland pack in their European Cup tie at the Rec, there were cracks, with fatigue becoming a factor for the first time. In the return leg the Leinster pack bounced back whereas Bath wilted, unable to sustain the ferocity.

With Alun Wyn Jones in the vanguard the Welsh forwards will not wilt so quickly, and with Wales and Ireland going at it in two more summer ‘friendlies’ before heading to Japan, the push for the World Cup summit has only just begun. What’s pleasing is that this time when we say may the best team from the four Home Unions win the 2019 World Cup, it does not have a hollow ring.

“RWC will reveal whether the rise of Northern nations is a seismic shift, or a small blip”