World Rugby could be left up the creek
We finally got some clarity on the proposed World League, and my immediate reaction was to wonder what the fuss was about. The major northern countries will play their five Six Nations games, three summer Tests in the Southern Hemisphere, and their three Autumn Internationals – that’s the status quo, not something new and revolutionary. The talk of semi-finals has been ditched, but there will be a grand final to produce a winner.
Now, we’ll never know whether this was always the shape of the proposed tournament, or a revised version produced after a shambolic version was leaked, and pretty well every man and his dog objected to it – my hunch is that it was the latter.
However, when it comes to the Southern Hemisphere nations, it’s conceivable that a new tournament might just have legs. World Rugby has bandied about some huge numbers as the potential income to the game – £5b was the headline figure. That’s over 12 years – why not just go the whole hog and say £10b over 24 years as that’s an even more eyecatching figure? In fact, the £5b figure is slightly misleading as ‘only’ £1.5b of that money would be genuinely incremental to current income.
The £5b over 12 years translates to just under £417m per year, but that will have to be divided among goodness knows how many partners: if you take the incremental revenue then that goes down to £125m – still a big figure but the pie will need to be sliced in many ways.
The 12 teams in the top two divisions will want the lion’s share, and who knows what will then be left over for the developing nations. These numbers sound really good, and the SANZAAR nations have expressed cautious optimism about the deal.
There are, however a lot of pitfalls in the way of this ever happening, and we should also question why World Rugby have suddenly woken from their comfortable slumbers and come up with this plan. The latter is easily answered: they’re terrified that they are starting to lose control of the game. The club scene in the north, particularly in England and France, has become ever more powerful, with serious money being paid for broadcasting rights, and outside money coming in, such as CVC’s investment in the Premiership. Now there’s talk of the same investor expressing interest in the Six Nations – if that happens, World Rugby is effectively up a not terribly nice creek without a paddle.
Effectively the Northern Hemisphere would have gone their own way, and the ‘suits’ in Dublin would have a hugely-reduced role – they would end up doing what I suggested last week should be their job, managing the Laws of the game, and trying to help its development outside of the major nations.
As for the pitfalls, top of the list must be the requirement for the Six Nations to introduce promotion and relegation. That’s something its essentially deeply conservative management has always resisted, and it’s a huge leap to see that changing – especially now that big bucks are on the table from outside investors. If the Six Nations says no, then I reckon World Rugby’s plans are dead in the water.
If outside investors add a share of the Six Nations to their existing Premiership stake, then it’s a pound to a penny that their next target will be south of the equator, where they won’t need to spend as much to get involved. It isn’t beyond the bounds of possibility that we will eventually have a World League, but I have doubts about whether World Rugby will be running it.
Sometimes you just have to roll your eyes and wonder about what goes on in rugby. The Principality Stadium in Cardiff has a roof, and we keep getting daft debates about whether it should be open or closed for Tests. That’s an easy one: rugby is an outdoor sport so the roof should always be open. No other nation appears to worry as much about its players getting cold and wet.
Of course, it’s really about the noise level and the effect that could have on the opposition. Plenty of people love the Principality Stadium, and I’ve seen comments to the effect that it’s the best rugby venue there is – I don’t agree with that, and find it a bit sterile when they close the roof.
The news that Manu Tuilagi has rejected the mega-bucks on offer from Racing 92, and will stay with Leicester Tigers is fantastic news for his club, and for England. His injury travails are well documented and the Tigers have stood by him, so it’s only right that their loyalty to him is rewarded with a new three-year deal. It doesn’t always work that way, so we should applaud Tuilagi’s decision.
“If Six Nations says no to relegation World Rugby’s plans are dead in the water”