Can anyone stop these All Blacks?
Nick Cain evaluates the chances of the last eight teams in the World Cup quarter-finals
THIS has been touted as the World Cup where the old powers of the game will strike back, with England, Wales, and Ireland spearheading the charge for a second winner from the north, and the quarter-finals this weekend makimg or breaking that theory.
With England facing Australia, Ireland taking on double world champions, New Zealand, and Wales playing France it could still happen. However, the idea that the southern hemisphere triumvirate of New Zealand, South Africa and Australia are ready to relinquish the Webb Ellis trophy without a snarl has been put to bed in the Pool stages in Japan.
The theory is fine, but putting the takeover into practice to topple the All Blacks, Springboks and Wallabies – who between them have won seven of the eight previous World Cups – is no easier than it has ever been.
On the face of it England might have the best chance of securing a place in the semi-finals because in all six meetings since the 2015 World Cup between England under Eddie Jones and Australia under Michael Cheika, right, the Wallabies have been losers.
England v Australia Saturday Oct 19. Kick-off 8.15am, Oita Bank Dome
If England are unwise enough to read too much into that 6-0 winning streak before their quarter-final in Oita against Australia then they will almost certainly be on the first flight back to Heathrow, and deservedly so. Relying on a feelgood factor from games that have been-and-gone to ‘carry them home’ is the equivalent of ambushing your own chances, and Jones is unlikely to brook any complacency in the Red Rose camp. The coach is also England’s secret weapon against Australia because, as a former Wallaby coach he knows the A to Z of how they play and has coached half the players in the team.
However, Australia’s second-half recovery in their narrow Pool D defeat by Wales, and their first round fight back against Fiji, shows they have made long strides in the year since England beat them 37-18 at Twickenham.
Aussie swagger means they will always bet on themselves to win a two-horse race, and with two complete front row units that can scrummage as well as carry, the old scrum Achilles heel that England attacked so successfully in the past has been fixed.
For the Wallabies that is a huge psychological barrier scaled, so England fans are unlikely to see Scott Sio, Tolu Latu and Allan Alaalatoa shunted back in disarray.
Hooker Latu is also a punishing ballcarrier, but the flip-side is that his throwing in is erratic, making the Australian lineout vulnerable to quick steals by Maro Itoje and George Kruis.
The former scrum foundation also brings the Australian scrum-half, whether Will Genia or Exeter’s Nic White, into play more in attack, and the same also applies to line-breaking No.8 Isi Naisarani and the gruesome twosome of the breakdown, David Pocock and captain Michael Hooper.
It has not all been plain sailing for Australia because first choice fly-half Bernard Foley has had an indifferent tournament so far, and Christian Lealifano has also not managed to make the shirt his own.
That has left the door ajar for Matt Toomua to step up at 10, and having kick-started the Wallaby second-half revival against Wales, the former Leicester utility is pushing hard for a face-off with his recent club team-mate George Ford.
Toomua’s inside knowledge on Ford, combined with his wiry strength, means that – unless he is moved out of the firing line in defence, or is on the bench – the Tigers 10 will be singled out for special attention.
England will also be wary of the physical size and power in the Wallaby backline where Fijian-born centres Samu Kerevi and Tevita Kuridrani are hard to hold, as is wing Marika Koroibete. Add to that a back three blend of the deceptively strong full-back Dane Haylett-Petty, veteran raider Adam Ashley-Coooper, and a dangerous virtuoso utility like Kurtley Beale, and the overall picture is one of a match in the balance rather than one in which England are clear favourites.
The advantage of Australia being more big-match ready having played Wales and Fiji could also be a significant factor following the cancellation of England’s last Pool match against France – and it is one that New Zealand will be guarding against when they meet Ireland.
New Zealand v Ireland Saturday Oct 19. Kick-off 11.15am, Ajinomoto Stadium
The cancellation of the All Blacks’ last Pool game against Italy means that Steve Hansen’s side will not have had a serious test since they played South Africa in the opening Pool round a month ago.
That at least puts New Zealand a step ahead of England, who’s only top end challenge turned into a ‘gimme’ when Argentina were reduced to 14-men for an hour. But there is no avoiding that it
is also a long time between competitive matches, especially when an Irish team that has beaten them twice since they retained their world title in 2015, has been through the mill.
A weird warm-up in which Ireland were hammered by England and beat Wales twice before they arrived at the World Cup, got stranger still when, having overwhelmed Scotland, they were bushwhacked by Japan.
However, that 19-12 defeat is a cloud with a silver lining in at least one sense. The speed and dazzle of the Japanese attack will have primed the Irish perfectly for the pace at which the All Blacks play the game – and that, allied to coach Joe Schmidt’s intricate knowledge of how his countrymen play, is invaluable.
Two Irish victories, a year ago in Dublin and two years before that in Chicago, will also focus the attention of the All Blacks. This time in Tokyo, however, Schmidt’s side will have to do it without a packed Aviva Stadium willing them to win, and the neutral ground might be their undoing.
It is hard to see New Zealand going out in the quarter-finals for the first time since they lost to France in 2007, especially with the spread of talent throughout their line-up, and the double play-maker threat posed by Beauden Barrett and Richie Mo’unga.
What is intriguing, and sets them apart from their rivals, is that full-back Barrett and fly-half Mo’unga are strike runners who have the pace to finish off chances as well as create them for others.
Throw-in the attacking flair in a back three of George Bridge, Sevu Reece and Ben Smith, as well as the almost error-free dependability of centres like Ryan Crotty and Anton Leinart-Brown, and there is a sense they are always in control.
No-one knows like Ireland do that it is a myth, that New Zealand cannot be rattled – and that if you can disrupt their forwards all bets are off.
With Brodie Retallick back at lock after injury it might sometimes be like trying to chip away at a huge coal-face with a pen-knife, but the likes of Tadhg Furlong know that if you open a fissure and it becomes a crack – eventually the wall falls.
This time, though, it’s hard to see the All Blacks collapsing.
Wales v France Sunday Oct 20. Kick-off 8.15am, Oita Bank Dome
The Welsh have carried the resilience and class that saw them crowned Six Nations champions six months ago into the World Cup, and it is why Warren Gatland’s side have come through the Pool stage as the greatest threat to New Zealand winning a third title in succession.
In scrum-half Gareth Davies and lock Alun Wyn Jones they have two of the players of the tournament so far, and their collective ability to dig-in after a full-tilt Wallaby comeback, showed not only the character of the side, but also the depth unearthed by coach Gatland. It was illustrated when bench fly-half Rhys Patchell came on for the injured Dan Biggar to get them over the line against Australia with three penalties and a drop-goal, and the same unflappable attitude was evident when Fiji went on the rampage in the first-half of their midweek match.
The refusal to panic was rewarded as Wales fought back to outscore Fiji, with Josh Adams putting a couple of defensive hiccups to one side before scoring the hat-trick that, along with a try by the outstanding Liam Williams,
below, carried Wales clear.
In Adams, Williams and Davies the Welsh boast three off the most incisive backs in the tournament, and the Welsh pack, with AW Jones at its core, is a tough nut for any opposition eight to crack.
On that basis it is hard to see where France can apply the leverage to prevail in the second of the Oita-based quarter-finals. It is tempting to say that the French always have one big game in them at World Cups, and it was true as recently as 2011, when, against all odds, they reached the final – and should have beaten New Zealand.
This generation of French players has yet to confound the world – and themselves – with a result for the ages, and, although the win over Argentina was a successful opening salvo, there has been nothing to suggest they can defy form to end Welsh hopes.
That said, there is no stranger rugby alchemy than the one that turns French teams from wasters into winners.And in wing Damian Penaud they have a proven match-winner.
Japan/Scotland v South Africa Sunday Oct 20. Kick-off 11.15am, Ajinomoto Stadium
Whether it is Japan or Scotland who progress today to face South Africa will be dependent on two main criteria. The first is that the last match in Pool A between Japan, who top the group on 14 points, and Scotland who are in third place on 10, is fit to be played in the aftermath of the typhoon. The second is that Scotland will have to beat Japan with a four try bonus point, and also prevent them from getting within seven points on the scoreboard, to secure the host nation a Pool-clinching losing bonus point. The odds are heavily stacked against Scotland because the storm-damage to stadiums and infrastructure in Yokohama/Tokyo could yet see the match-cancelled. In that event two points each would be awarded, confirming Japan’s qualification and Scotland’s departure from the tournament.
If the match goes ahead Scotland – who were beaten 230 by Ireland, who were then beaten 19-12 by Japan – still face an incredibly difficult task to beat the Japanese by the margins outlined. However, improbable as that outcome is, it is possible, and could enable Scotland to qualify.
What we know for certain is that South Africa await whoever finishes first, and that they will be a formidable foe – and one that still has designs on winning the World Cup despite their 23-13 loss to New Zealand in the opening Pool round.
South Africa are not as adept at moving defences around as New Zealand, but what they lack in guile they make up for in brute force up front and the brilliant athleticism of backs like Cheslin Kolbe. Apart from Jason Robinson and Shane Williams, they do not make backs like Kolbe.
If it is Japan who play South Africa they will believe that with the home crowd behind them in Tokyo they can do another Brighton – but this time the Springboks are forewarned, and that will make a repeat of the 2015 epic more difficult.
South Africa coach Rassie Erasmus will try to deny the quicksilver Japanese scrum-halves Yutaka Nagare and Fumiaki Tanaka the rapid recycle ball they want, and use it to put the squeeze on fly-half Yu Tamura.
Should Japan – or Scotland – stop the Springboks getting a choke-hold up front, and keep the tempo high, then they are in with a chance. And on the evidence of the Pool stages up until the final game, Japan look better equipped to do that than the Scots.