Beat the All Blacks or you’ll be toast!
Dear Dave
CONGRATULATIONS on taking the Wallabies job, especially when it is based in Sydney, one of the most liveable cities in the world.
Be warned though, the mess that you are inheriting doesn’t match the surroundings and didn’t occur by accident.
As my old boss Robbie Deans found when he took it on before you, the structural issues at play in Australian rugby are quite unlike anything you will have encountered previously.
Not in Scotland where you have been, and most definitely not in New Zealand – which is almost too much the other way, centralised to the point that the All Blacks are all that matters.
But you know that already from your time winning with both the New Zealand Under-20s and the Chiefs, which were barely enough to get you a Christmas card from New Zealand Rugby, let alone an invitation to be involved aboard the ‘Good Ship Steve Hansen’.
Speaking of ships, I guess you’ve learnt something about Rugby Australia already by the fact that your name has been publicly linked to the Wallaby job for so long – it leaks like one.
Nothing betrays the culture of the individual more than internal business being done in public, and it is a widespread habit in Australian rugby.
‘Off the record’ briefings and favoured journos weren’t really Robbie’s go, but that’s the way it’s been for a long time in Camp Wallaby and beyond.
There’s plenty of players, either in person or indirectly via their managers, or even senior management at Rugby Australia, who will be happily tittle-tattling to the Press to make sure they are ‘protected’ by the fourth estate regardless of which way your results head.
You at least shouldn’t have any of the state coaches undermining you, running their little clandestine campaigns, as has happened in the past.
You already know Brad Thorn of Queesnland Reds and Rob Penney of the NSW Waratahs.
Both, as you are aware, are good men, who will have no desire to replace you, and so should be prepared to help the national programme in any way they can.
They can assist most notably around player workloads in-season, injury management, and physical preparation and conditioning.
These were all areas that proved impossible to get a coordinated approach on during Robbie’s time.
Dave Wessels at the Melbourne Rebels, and Dan McKellar, at the Brumbies, are both young coaches, who have not been around long enough to have evolved into seasoned ‘self-promoters’.
Like Thorn and Penney, you should find them supportive.
Your close relationship with director of rugby Scott Johnson at Rugby Australia is going to help, but you are probably aware that ‘Johnno’ can polarise opinions a bit, and the ‘protective blanket’ he’s had so far in the job, of blaming everything on your predecessor Michael Cheika, no longer applies going forward.
You will be identified with him by the critics so be prepared for that.
I notice you have said to ‘judge you on your results’.
Be careful saying that before you start, it could quickly be used against you.
It was predictable of Rugby Australia to emphasise the time it will take to change the culture, and that getting everyone working together will be an initial focus, but I can’t help seeing that public relations line as eerily similar to the ‘excuse’ that was offered when Ewen McKenzie struggled, after having been the beneficiary of the move that unseated Robbie.
And that, unfortunately for McKenzie, didn’t end too well.
Indeed, since he resigned after the fiasco over the business manager he appointed to the team, I don’t think
McKenzie has been seen or heard from since.
While you will have seen from the initial criticism that there are already former players and media hacks waiting for, and believing, you will fail, your biggest issue may be convincing the players themselves.
Not because they don’t rate you, more because they don’t rate themselves, and are not prepared to do the work and make the physical sacrifices required to consistently beat the best.
Worryingly, given results against the All Blacks are what Wallaby coaches are ultimately judged on by the Australian public, that gap is getting wider.
Although Robbie took the Wallabies from sixth in the world rankings when he took over, to two, and kept them there for all but the last six months of his term, they had plummeted back to sixth by the time McKenzie and Cheika were finished. The average winning margins in All Black Tests had also blown out. Between 2008 and 2012, the All Blacks won 14 of the 18 Bledisloe Tests against the Deans-coached Wallabies, with an average winning margin of 12.6 points.
Six of the games were won by single digit deficits, though. Two were by one point.
In the seven years since, the average margin for the All Blacks through 16 wins from 20 Tests has shot up to 20.6 points, being held to a single digit winning margin only three times. This will make it hard, as the acceptance of defeat does seem to come forward.
Making it worse, Australia struggle to beat any of South Africa, England, Ireland or Wales now; all teams that Robbie’s sides largely enjoyed the upper hand against.
As you know from your Chiefs days, where guys like Liam Messam, Craig Clarke and Sam Cane provided great direction for your playing group, leadership is going to be critical.
The cupboard on that score is a bit bare. You might have to get the next generation of leaders going a bit earlier than is ideal, especially when you need to start well to win the critics over.
Australia is a great country, even if Rugby Union is the fourth-most followed winter code at best, in arguably the most competitive sports market in the world.
The downside of that landscape is impatience.
The focus seems more on making ‘noise’ in public, signing up League ‘names’ to try and achieve results overnight, than it is on laying a foundation that might make longer-term success sustainable.
That’s not to say you can’t make it work, but I can confidently say that it will be the biggest achievement of your coaching career if you do.
There are some wonderful people involved in the community game in Australia, whom I’m sure you will meet as you get out and about.
They deserve a national team whose excellence matches the distinction with which they themselves contribute to the game.
Good luck making it happen.
Regards Matt McIlraith