One of the big beasts could take the drop this season
Exeter will be favourites to win this season’s Premiership with Saracens now facing impossible odds to make the final following their decision not to appeal their 35-point deduction.
However, which team the Chiefs will face in the showpiece is wide open because most of the teams are so inconsistent. At the bottom I fancy Saracens to stay up but it could still be one of the so-called ‘bigger’ sides who find themselves in next season’s Championship.
Bristol have continued their upward trajectory under Pat Lam and are the early pace-setters in both the league and their Challenge Cup pool. Their 36-0 defeat of Brive on French soil was some statement on Friday night.
Lam proved he can produce the unexpected when he worked miracles to lead Connacht to the PRO12 title in 2016 and the early signs are that he is turning the Bears into a formidable side. They easily beat the drop last season in their first year back in the top-flight and Lam has made some astute signings in Nathan Hughes and Dave Attwood.
If they beat one or two of the other playoff hopefuls in the coming rounds, there is no reason to suggest they won’t keep pace and be in the top four come May. With a squad unlikely to be too affected by Six Nations call-ups I expect them to challenge.
The signing of Attwood could be the key in building their pack depth as the side who can offer a genuine threat to Exeter must have ten quality front-five forwards who are almost interchangeable.
When Bath made the final in 2014-15, losing 28-16 to Saracens, it was based on their front-five forwards playing consistently brilliant rugby regardless of who was picked. Saracens’ dominance has been built on that same pack fortitude. Their backline has not been scary, but they execute accurately and produce consistently high performances. The same is true of Exeter and any side with genuine ambition to lift the trophy must match that.
Sale are another side who I believe will be there or thereabouts this season. It’s a big blow that new signing Springbok lock Lood de Jager will miss a large chunk of the campaign with a shoulder injury, but having Faf de Klerk and Tom Curry back after their exploits in Japan will inspire the team. The signing of Mark Wilson on loan from Newcastle will also be a huge asset.
De Klerk enjoyed a great World Cup behind a pack of wildebeests, giving him front foot ball and allowing him to orchestrate how he chose.
It is not the same at Sale, and his kicking game will be under great scrutiny in the Premiership where inaccuracy is punished. But his energy will be infectious on the Sharks squad, as will be his determination and will to win.
He was one of the best players in the Premiership last season and now he is coming back as a world champion it will only boost his confidence level and make him even more influential.
Curry was one of the World Cup’s standout players and his progression over the last few years has been stagGloucester gering. Despite having only turned 21 in June, he is unbelievably consistent and his energy and movement mark him out as something special. He is learning how to maximise his effectiveness of when to go into a ruck or maul, or jackal the ball, and he gets important tries. I’ve nothing but high praise for him.
Sale have a dangerous back three who take their chances and an experienced and classy fly-half in AJ McGinty who plays in the right areas. If they can stay in the play-off mix until De Jager is fit and firing they will offer a genuine threat to Exeter for the title.
Northampton and Gloucester were last season’s losing semi-finalists and I can see both of those sides taking further big strides in their development. DoR Chris Boyd has refuelled the Saints although their recent defeat to 14-man Bath casts a doubt if they are serious contenders. But rugby can change a lot in a week.
“Bath flatter to deceive while Leicester still look short of confidence”
have a good pack and good half-backs but, like Sale, are still inconsistent with two wins and two loses from their opening games and that must change.
I thought Harlequins would have made a better start to the season. Paul Gustard seems to be an innovator and I expect them to make a charge up the table. The appointment of Toby Booth to assist with the forwards coaching should be good for the Quins boys.
Worcester and London Irish have both looked impressive so far – Irish have made some great signings and Warriors have more mettle – and I would be surprised if either were to go down this season which means one of the big boys could be in jeopardy.
Wasps could struggle and it will be interesting to see how they deal with the loss of Elliot Daly to Saracens. They need to get that form back from a couple of seasons ago when their opponents would all hope it was a wet and slippery day at the Ricoh or they would be torn to shreds. Bath are good on paper but continue to flatter to deceive while Leicester still look short of confidence.
Saracens will be sweating if they get anywhere near seven defeats and a lot could rest on whether their England players chose club or country come the Six Nations. I don’t think the players should rush into making a decision yet.
Jamie George has come out and said he will play for England but if it was me I would take as long as possible to make that decision and see how the land lies nearer the time and if my club need me.
There are a lot of factors to take into consideration and, as a player, it’s an agonising position to be in. To play for your club and say No to England would be a big call, but I hope supporters do not judge the players for the choice they make.