Country-by-country, Six Nations in focus
The Rugby Paper’s brains trust reconvened for the annual Six Nations debate to thrash out the top talking points ahead of Saturday’s kick-off. Columnists Nick Cain, Jerry Guscott and Peter Jackson give their opinions to editor Matthew Emery.
Matthew Emery: With a fast turnaround from the World Cup, the Six Nations is upon us. How do you see events in Japan affecting proceedings? Surely England go in as the best team in the northern hemisphere?
Nick Cain: I’m not convinced that World Cup form is going to dictate. Psychologically it’s about how the England pack responds after that South Africa final. I’ve got real concern over England. They’ll face a fierce challenge in the opening game. There are always pivotal games and England away to France is a big one.
Jerry Guscott: Once you lose a world class player like Billy Vunipola it can really change the complexion of a team. How can he be replaced? If Owen Farrell got injured it’s the same. If Alun Wyn Jones got injured people would doubt Wales’ chances and a fit Johnny Sexton changes Ireland.
Peter Jackson: I back France to beat
England first up and I think England will always be bothered by Wales because of the rivalry and history between them.
JG: No side is utterly dominant. Two seasons ago every time New Zealand played people thought they would win. But right now we’re not seeing that sort of consistency from any side in the world. You couldn’t see world champions South Africa going on a 20-game unbeaten run for instance.
ME: How will the Saracens situation impact England? Will their players be more intent, or could there be some bitterness from the other players in the squad? Is there a psychological effect knowing relegation is coming?
NC: As pro rugby players they have to keep their stock high and there’s no better way of doing that than producing at the optimum level of international rugby. It’s a showcase for them and that doesn’t change. If they have their mind set right they use it to move forward.
JG: The Saracens players have shown their intent already with their performance against Racing last week – 14 men beat a side that is a favourite to win the Champions Cup. There will only be banter towards the Saracens players, there won’t be jealousy. They are mates.
NC: The club has mismanaged their affairs financially but the players were not instrumental in that mismanagement.
JG: There won’t be any grudges in that England squad.
NC: The biggest problem is losing a player like Billy. There are big question marks about this England squad, the main one is what are they going to do at No.8. Eddie Jones is saying he has a number of No.8s and named Lewis Ludlam and Tom Curry as players to fill the role.
JG: Neither are No.8s
NC: Exactly. But he named them as backup. He brought in Alex Dombrandt last season and overall he’s played pretty well this season but Eddie has overlooked him. Not to have a big bloke is a strange call.
JG: Is Dombrandt fit enough? That’s the only thing that could be holding him back. Billy Vunipola can last 80 minutes comfortably now. Stuart Lancaster built him up and Jones has continued that. It was easier when I started playing to be picked on form as there were fewer measurements statistically – 30 years ago Dombrandt would have been in as back up to Billy.
NC: Fitness could be the issue, or work rate. But if you have a Sam Underhill or Curry you’ve doubled up on work rate already. Dombrandt could have filled the gap and they’ll go in with a short back row and com
pared to some of the other sides I’m not sure it’s the right mix. Eddie’s put his marker down and he’s going for a lightweight, fast back row. None of them are big, heavy duty carriers. The other option is Ben Earl – he’s playing 7 or 8 for Saracens.
JG: You don’t need to have a tall guy in the back row for the lineout. Two guys can still chuck a six foot guy up pretty high. New Zealand thought they needed a big back row lineout option at the World Cup and put Scott Barrett in but it didn’t work and he was changed at half-time.
NC: Yes, in that game England jacked Curry up in the air.
ME: Could Maro Itoje not play six to give extra height in the back row?
NC: Eddie has always said he sees him as a lock. I think he’s a great player and can play six, but he’s a better lock.
JG: Doesn’t mean Eddie won’t pick him there. We all know Elliot Daly isn’t a full-back but he’s picked him there!
NC: But he’s always said he sees Daly as a full-back.
JG: Doesn’t mean he can’t change his mind about Itoje.
ME: Who else could have filled the gap at No.8?
NC: I don’t think Nathan Hughes has been playing well enough. Sam Simmonds has been overlooked and Mark Wilson has been dropped.
ME: Wilson has just come back from injury though.
NC: Yes but you look at some other players who have just come back from injury; Jones would have them back in his squad no matter what.
JG: Clearly Wilson’s not one of those players like an Itoje, Farrell, Jamie George, Underhill or Curry who would have come straight in – they are the front line. Wilson wasn’t first choice if everyone was fit.
NC: But he was in the Autumn team before the World Cup and they brought him in against New Zealand in the semi-final.
JG: Yes, but this is a different squad now. It’s a new beginning.
NC: Will Stuart at tighthead and Earl could play a part but the other new guys who are there – Fraser Dingwall, George Furbank, Jacob Umaga are window dressing. On form, Joe Simmonds is the next best 10.
JG: Until one of George Ford or Farrell get injured we don’t need to talk about third choice 10. Any third choice is almost irrelevant.
NC: But there is inconsistency in what Eddie does. Eddie picked Marcus Smith last season and he’s not in the squad, and Ben Spencer was flown out for the World Cup final but is not in the squad now.
JG: A season in rugby is a hell of a long time. Smith will be a very good club player but he has to be far better to be a regular international. Simmonds is more consistent – 8/10 every week – but the chances of him playing no matter how well he plays are slim while Ford and Farrell are there.
NC: I’m talking about the merry go round of young apprentice players.
JG: You need to bring them in to see what they’re like. Eddie’s selection policy has been proven by getting to a World Cup final. That’s good enough for me.
NC: He doesn’t have a clear idea of the next man in. Peter Jackson joins the party: Isn’t it a concern with this constant changing of specialist coaches? No one seems to stay that long. JG: From a player point of view I think it’s refreshing to have new coaches coming in to listen to new voices. I thought Scott Wisemantle brought England’s attack on now it needs to be taken to another level under Simon Amor. NC: Steve Borthwick’s been there a while – seven years with Jones as his lineout specialist – but with Neal Hatley, people saw a restoration of the scrum’s strength until it came unstuck against the Boks so it’s a fair move to replace one set-piece coach with another.
JG: Do you rate this new guy Matt Proudfoot?
NC: I’m not sure yet. I talked to Schalk Brits about him and he said he’s a people person coach, not a crack the whip type. Technically he’s quite good and reasonably experienced.
PJ: That display against New Zealand was the best I’ve ever seen England play as a one off performance.
ME: So who will win this Six Nations – if England were to beat France in Paris can they do a Grand Slam?
NC: The first thing I look at is home and away. Those with home advantage have a significant edge when it comes to overall winners. The three sides with three homes games are France, Ireland and Wales. That’s a very important consideration for me. I think it’s going to be a hung parliament. No Slam this year – the championship will be won on points difference …and I’ll say Ireland.
PJ: For the last 20 years the season after a World Cup has seen a Grand Slam: England in 2016, Wales in 2012 and 2008, and France in 2004. The last time there wasn’t was 2000. England lost in Paris that year. But like Nick, I don’t really see a Grand Slam this year. I’ll go left field and say France by a short head from England.
JG: It’s not that left field Jacko! PJ: Every bookmaker has England odds on. The best odds against an England Grand Slam are 13/8! France have England at home, then Italy at home. New coach Fabien Galthie has got rid of almost half the team that lost to Wales in the World Cup quarterfinal. We saw at the weekend how good Antoine Dupont and Romain Ntamack are for Toulouse. And with Shaun Edwards there now in charge of defence I can see them doing well, including beating Wales in Cardiff. It’s a crying shame they’ve gone missing from the Six Nations for about ten years.
NC: I don’t buy into all this French stuff. I agree having a strong France energises the Six Nations but I’m not convinced yet. Maybe they will sort it out this time but who knows. Galthie has brought in 19 young guns, he’s got rid of a lot of the old lags and retained nine or ten who started against Wales. One plus is that Galthie has the best track record of the French coaches and he’s been close to winning trophies with every team he’s coached.
JG: They’ve got a good balance with their coaching set-up with Raphael Ibanez there in charge of the forwards and Edwards, but they are going through massive changes – especially at half-back. I think England to win in Paris, and the Championship.
NC: Edwards demands rigour. Real attention in defence and that is the acid test – if he can bring that rigour.
JG: Yes they’ve had blips, but they’ve been very robotic and one dimensional, set piece, forward orientated. I think Edwards will be brilliant for them but I want to see them cut loose more. I don’t want them to have that rigour at the expense of everything else. I’d like to see Ntamack at 10. If you had the rugby brain of Ntmack and Damien Penaud, one near the start of it, one near the end, you’ve got two backs saying give me the ball. With Vimiri Vakatawa in the middle, Gael Fickou and Thomas Ramos at full-back you’ve got guys who want to attack. Galthie also needs to identify who his best goal-kicker is and then not mess around with it.
ME: So we’re split on England against France, will England beat Scotland at Murrayfield?
NC: Last time round they didn’t in 2018.
JG: Not many top tier teams play badly and lose at home on a regular basis. England have Wales and Ireland at home and I back them to win those. They’ll beat Italy away.
PJ: This is the first time we’ve had four new coaches and four new captains.
NC: The most street-wise coach is Jones as he’s been around the longest but on the basis of what we’ve seen from his selection I’m a bit confused. Two pivotal positions – scrum-half and No.8 – are odd. It’s not the right fit if Jones wants a fast game.
ME: So what of the England No.9 situation – Eddie’s stuck with his two World Cup picks in Ben Youngs and Willi Heinz, who’s your starter?
JG: I’d go with someone who isn’t even in the squad – Ben Spencer. We have a habit of going back to the last game and Youngs wasn’t great. But if we look through Youngs’ 95 caps there will be some outstanding performances. But Leicester are bottom of the table if it weren’t for Saracens so Youngs is not dominating anything.
NC: Jones said he doesn’t want to start mucking around with new scrum-halves as this Six Nations has come too close to the World Cup for him to be able to experiment in such a position. I don’t buy it. I think it’s the wrong decision and he should have changed both of his 9s. Heinz organises a game well but he’s older than Youngs.
JG: France’s Achilles heel has been their inconsistency at half-back, it’s the brains of your team. If you wipe out 50 per cent of it, it will take a season to come back so I can see why he hasn’t changed it. But we all agree Spencer should be in the squad. He can run, pass and box kick and he kicks goals. It beggars belief he’s not in there.
NC: Spencer’s been sat on by England. There have been question marks over Youngs for two seasons. It doesn’t add up. Jones says he wants quick ball and persists with Youngs who takes two steps before he passes the ball. Jones has alluded to the fact he doesn’t think the Premiership is a good trading post for Test rugby. What bothers me is how few players get picked from lower teams. For instance Dan Robson, in terms of moving the ball away, he’s as quick a scrum-half as there is in England. Kyran Bracken has a stop watch on how fast England 9s move the ball away from the base and says it’s not comparable to Aaron Smith. Look at the two Japanese 9s – the ball is just gone. Here it’s unbelievably slow in comparison with English 9s looking around for the next set.
PJ: Most of them stop and look and think. I loved the way Japan played. ME: How will Wales fare?
PJ: The problem for Wales will be how does Wayne Pivac follow Warren Gatland. I’d love to see Wales play a bit more like the Scarlets did a couple of seasons ago. They’ve been the most exciting Welsh team. They had me on the edge of my seat in a way Wales don’t. It was pragmatic with Gatland, so the question now is how does Pivac make Wales less predictable without weakening their strengths as they are at the moment?
JG: Scarlets didn’t have a pack to compete against the best sides in Europe whereas Wales do.
NC: The legacy Pivac’s been left by Gatland is not far off outstanding – there’s the pack he’s inherited plus bringing in WillGriff John and Will
Rowlands, plus Nick Tompkins in the centres. Under Gatland they’ve won three Grand Slams.
PJ: By being the fittest team and a solid defence. When was the last time you saw Wales’ backs cut loose like England did against Australia or New Zealand? The Welsh backs ought to be doing more.
JG: It’s ultimately about winning and Gatland had a pretty good record of it. Jacko makes a good point though. Two seasons ago Wales tried to change the way they played and it looked like a comedy of errors because they’d been playing the same way for the previous ten seasons.
PJ: Yes, Warrenball.
JG: But Gatland said what is Warrenball? It’s about being pragmatic.
NC: Yes, making the best of what you’ve got.
JG: In Pivac, Stepen Jones and Byron Hayward – you’ve got the Scarlets coaches who got them a PRO12 title. They will have the makings of doing something special but not immediately. It’s more difficult to change the attacking mind than the defensive one. Wales’ auto pilot is to kick and chase.
PJ: So many people watched the World Cup and asked why can’t Wales play like Japan.
NC: Japan went out in the quarterfinals.
ME: Is that all that matters though? JG: In a World Cup, yes.
NC: If England don’t win anything and play marvellous rugby would you be satisfied? I’m not sure. The thing is to maximise on your strengths to win. There is beauty in all parts of it.
PJ: I remember speaking to Gavin Hastings’ dad after Gavin had scored six penalties on debut in the 1986 Five Nations. Scotland had beaten France 18-17 and I asked him ‘you must be pretty happy after that?’ and he replied ‘aye not bad – but may I remind you
Mr Jackson that the object of rugby football is to score tries!’
I don’t want a suffocating, Jose Mourinho-like professional attitude when it’s all about winning. There’s more to it than winning.
NC: There’s also more to it than style. You’ve got to be able to win with what you’ve got.
JG: You have to be smart. Wales had a chance of winning the World Cup if they had got to the final but I said their main challenge would be getting there playing the style they did. And so it proved. To win a quarter, semi and final against those top ranked sides you need more. And if I was one of their top guys like George North, Liam Williams or Jonathan Davies, would I really want to go out of the World Cup playing like that. I’d rather have gone out playing the way I know we can play.
NC: Dan Biggar was their best fly-half at the World Cup and he plays a certain way for Northampton.
JG: It doesn’t stop him releasing his backs. Rhys Patchell releases them more. Wales could struggle without Jonathan Davies.
NC: Midfield is their problem area without Davies. It could be Hadleigh Parkes alongside Tompkins, North or Owen Watkin. But all other areas of their game are strong. John will come through well in the front row, Toby Faletau’s back, Alun Wyn is still there and Jacko’s right – Wales will always be awkward for England. They’ve got three home games nicely spaced – first, last and in the middle. They will get off to the right start against Italy and then they have Ireland away which is the critical game. England start with two away games in France and Scotland and by the time they play Wales at Twickenham they could be a busted flush in terms of this Grand Slam.
ME: Rhys Webb’s back for Wales does he start?
PJ: He will probably be on the bench and have to earn it. And elsewhere Ulster’s John Cooney is playing well enough to demand he replaces the towering figure of Conor Murray who you could argue hasn’t been the same player since he had that knee injury.
NC: Cooney’s merited it on form but I’d be amazed if Ireland don’t go for Luke McGrath if Murray doesn’t start.
ME: What do we think of Ireland? Are we writing them off ?
JG: No but they have got a tough start – Scotland, Wales and England.
PJ: Devin Toner’s back with a big point to prove after being shortchanged by Joe Schmidt.
NC: Leinster are the dominant force in Europe and apart from James Lowe and Scott Fardy they’re all Irish.
PJ: A lot depends on Johnny Sexton and to make him captain is a bold move. I’d be surprised if Sexton is fit for all five games.
JG: I’m surprised by Sexton’s appointment as captain due to his age and injury history and the fact he was such a lieutenant of Schmidt. It could be like Rory Best before him, who fell off a cliff. You get to a certain age and no matter how sound your mind is your body can’t take it. I thought Andy Farrell might go with someone new. Like Clive Woodward did by appointing Lawrence Dallaglio and Geoff Cooke did with Will Carling. Sexton is so much the old guard.
PJ: James Ryan would be a good choice.
JG: There’s probably a natural pecking order of leadership of Sexton, Murray and Peter O’Mahoney. Ryan deserves to be at the top table – given form and fitness of the others he seems a natural choice. I think Ireland have got a very decent front five, the back row is highly competitive. It’s a very good pack that could set them up well in this Six Nations. Their challenge is at 9 and 10. Why don’t you go for the Ulster half-back pairing with Cooney and Billy Burns at 10.
NC: Or the Leinster pairing of McGrath and Ross Byrne.
JG: Ireland are a shout for the championship but have England and France away.
ME: So we’ve said that Scotland will be tough to beat at home, could they win the Championship?
NC: They won’t be a championshipwinning side but they are good enough to upset one or two others. Glasgow’s pack was very good against Exeter. Scotland are not going to be a door mat.
PJ: John Barclay retiring will be a big loss, Greig Laidlaw going can be absorbed but Tommy Seymour has also retired.
JG: The thing they lack is a carrying set of forwards. They can strike from distance with Finn Russell, when he’s allowed back in, Huw Jones and Stuart Hogg but they haven’t had a pack of forwards that you are intimidated by for a number of seasons. They’ve got a good lineout but scrummaging and ball-carrying isn’t intimidating. You could be under siege by Scotland for days and you would not know. You need at least four dynamic carriers in your pack. Scotland can hurt you from lineout or loose ball but the game’s tighter than that.
NC: Exeter’s pack is an architype England pack – very powerful at set-piece and Glasgow held them. In terms of what they created, Adam Hastings looks like a promising playmaker and they have some decent strike runners. PJ: Russell’s in a class of his own as a player you would pay to watch as you don’t know what he’s going to do. And when it comes off like that nutmeg grubber against Ulster, it’s wonderful. NC: Feast or famine. PJ: He’s always prepared to have a go. It’s high risk, I appreciate that – Gatland would never have tolerated a player like that. ME: What about Italy this year under Franco Smith? They’ve gone three years without a win, will that change? NC: We haven’t mentioned them because we’re fairly decided on the fact they’ll be eating their minestrone with a wooden spoon! PJ: 2000/1 for an Italy Grand Slam! But they will provide one of the great moments of this championship with Sergio Parisse’s send off. He has been so good for so long – he’s lost more matches than any other player in Test rugby and in a way that’s a great testament to him. He’s stuck with a losing cause season in, season out. At his pomp he was the greatest No.8 of his era.
ME: After Russell who are your players to watch?
PJ: Dupont is exciting, but not guaranteed a place because of Baptiste Serin who is another livewire scrumhalf. Cooney, if he is allowed to take his Ulster form onto the Six Nations stage is another who could electrify the tournament.
NC: Vakatawa is playing out of his skin. He’s lit up the European Cup and was brilliant in the World Cup. His ability to stay on his feet in the tackle is outstanding. He’s a tremendous athlete and he and Fickou in the centres for France could spell all sorts of problems for England.
JG: And Ntamack is a great talent. PJ: Aaron Wainwright can take it by storm. He was tremendous last season, so much so there’s no longer any talk about Dan Lydiate coming back in.
NC: And to blow an English trumpet – Undercurry. The two players who underpinned that performance more than anybody else against New Zealand were Underhill and Curry. Both in the quarter-final and semifinal they were phenomenal.
PJ: Louis Rees-Zammit has had a phenomenal impact as an 18-year-old at Gloucester. Hard to think of a more prolific try-scorers teenagers.
NC: He’s fast twitch electric.
PJ: And Johnny McNicholl is a class act and could make a good impact – and on form it should be McNicholl and Josh Adams on the wings for Wales.
JG: Yes, like Dombrandt, ReesZammit would have been starting 20 years ago but he shouldn’t get in ahead of Adams – he’s not a better international player than Adams. Whether North plays centre – which I think would be at the detriment of their strength in depth in the centres but understandable given his experience – North is a vulnerable wing due to his form. With Rob Kearney gone we should see another exciting player in Jordan Larmour starting at fullback for Ireland.
NC: Keith Earls, Jacob Stockdale and Larmour is a pretty tasty back three. Like I said earlier, Ireland for the title!
JG: Every year we say it’s going to be the closet Six Nations ever and this year Nick’s said it’s a hung parliament and then had to put his glasses on to read his notes and come up with an answer!
VERDICT
Nick Cain - Ireland Jeremy Guscott - England Peter Jackson - France Matt Emery - England