>> Guscott: Russell can swing it Scotland’s way
IT is a long time since Scotland have had to live with the weight of expectation of winning matches in the Six Nations such as the one they face against Ireland at Murrayfield today. However, after their thoroughly deserved victory over England at Twickenham in the opening round, and a home match against Wales which they should have won after dominating large parts of the match, and in which they were ahead in virtually every statistic on the field of play – apart from the final score – the Scots will want to make this one count.
The challenge they face is that Ireland are never easy opponents, and what will be telling is if the Scots come out to play, or go into their shells. My feeling is that they will take the game to Ireland, because they are more comfortable with the way they are playing than for a long time.
Most importantly, the Scottish forwards have started to front up. Their front five played with real conviction and growing confidence against England and Wales, and they have a back row which is destructive in defence and constructive in attack.
One of their success stories has been No.8 Matt Fagerson, who is a bigger version of Exeter’s Sam Simmonds, and is part of a back row that is functioning as ball-carriers, because the front five are doing their job at the set-piece, restarts and mauls. Hamish Watson is one of the best openside terriers in the world, and Jamie Ritchie is a hardgrafting blindside.
The Scots also have the benefit of scrum-half Ali Price starting to link well with Finn Russell, who is showing greater control and judgement at fly-half. Russell is no longer always looking for the miracle ball, but mixing his game well and often looking to set his centres motoring.
What has changed most is that Russell is now prepared to kick if it isn’t on, and start again. He has seen the importance at fly-half of doing the simple things well, and yet he still has the belief in his ability to stand flat and challenge any defence with his outstanding passing, kicking and running skills.
On top of that, Stuart Hogg is on his way to becoming the player of the Championship again, with the Scottish captain back to his counterattacking best at 15.
It should be an entertaining game, and if Scotland get good ball I would favour them to pose plenty of problems for Andy Farrell’s team. The Scots did not finish it off against Wales, mainly because they didn’t adapt quickly enough when they went a man down, but playing with 15 men off quick ball they are a much-improved side, in which Russell has clearly benefited from playing alongside world-class players at Racing.
Ireland have not changed that much, and the biggest issue they face is that if you become predictable, you get found out.
It sometimes seems as if Ireland’s favoured strategy is to mount enough pressure to force a penalty out of the opposition, kick for territory, and then go again by going through the phases until they create a mismatch or outmanoeuvre the defence.
Although Johnny Sexton has still got it as a playmaker, he can sometimes get embroiled in looking too much at refereeing decisions, or what his teammates are doing.
One of the main reasons I see Scotland winning is because I expect their defensive display to be as good as it was against England, and if they create opportunities they have three good finishers in Hogg, Sean Maitland and Duhan van der Merwe.
They were not always as clinical as they should have been against England, with Hogg and Russell messing up a couple of times in their own half, but there are not many wingers with the size and power to score Van der Merwe’s try.
Van der Merwe is a big man, and quite fast, so when you bring him in on the rattle he causes serious problems. My only reservation is that he might be a bit selfish, and at international level it is important to realise that when someone else is better placed to score than you are, you pass them the ball.
Ireland are always in with a good chance if they can play their possession game with very few errors. In those circumstances, they are difficult side to beat – but if they make mistakes, or are forced into making them by the likes of Watson and Ritchie, then Scotland have the ability to take advantage.
However, if you highlighted the players who have made the biggest impact on this Six Nations so far, there are not many Irish players you would bracket alongside Hogg, Teddy Thomas, Gael Fickou, Kieran Hardy and Alun Wyn Jones.
Hugo Keenan has played well at full-back for Ireland, but he isn’t in that category yet. The same applies to James Lowe, who is hungry, solid, has got a good skill set, including a big left boot. So, while neither have had a bad start to the tournament, they have not made you sit up and take notice.
The Irish pack still has its share of Lions candidates, but the midfield back I have always thought has a chance of being a Test Lion is Robbie Henshaw.
If you are looking for a centre who can take that hard line off a lineout that cuts into the pocket inside the opposition fly-half, carrying a couple of defenders with them before delivering quick ball, then Henshaw is that man. However, Ireland have not often used him in that way in this tournament.
Ireland have also picked Jamison Gibson-Park as starting scrum-half against the Scots ahead of Conor Murray, who is coming back after injury and is on the bench. GibsonPark has not let Ireland down, but has not made the impact of an Antoine Dupont, whereas Murray is still the best box-kicker in the world, and knows how to run the Irish team blindfolded.
I would be more confident of Scotland winning with a big Murrayfield crowd behind them, because ‘the sixteenth man’ is still an important factor, and the players in visiting sides like Ireland will not feel as much tension or stress in an empty stadium.
However, I still take Scotland to win, with their defensive speed and durability helping them to edge it.
“Russell has seen the importance at fly-half of doing the simple things well”