Gatland’s Lions will give the pride of place to Six Nations Celtic warriors
LIONS tours have always had twists and turns that make them tales of the unexpected, and the 2021 expedition to South Africa has had its fair share already. After months of Covid-induced prevarication we learned this week that the Lions will travel to South Africa, as initially scheduled, rather than the series being turned on its head and played in the UK.
We also had a pretty good idea after England’s 32-18 hammering by Ireland in Dublin that pre-Six Nations predictions that they would provide the single largest contingent in the 2021 Lions squad have been torn to shreds.
Eddie Jones was among those doing the forecasting, with his best guess six months ago of a 20-man English vanguard dominating Lions selection highlighting just how overconfident he was going into a Six Nations campaign which saw his Red Rose side finish fifth in the table.
Losses to Scotland, Wales and Ireland for the first time in 45 years, ensured his players would be the biggest Lions losers.
In the last two Tests of the 2017 drawn series in New Zealand there were ten Englishmen in both starting 23s – nearly all of whom are still available for the South Africa tour.
However, they have put themselves in an invidious position by the poverty of their performances against their Celtic opponents.
Warren Gatland, who is about to embark on his third tour as Lions head coach, showed with the dropping of Brian O’Driscoll in 2013 that he is no sentimentalist.
Gatland has said that the Six Nations is his main selection showcase, and his solitary vigil at empty national stadiums over the last seven weeks has left him with an England selection headache if he takes current form as a main yardstick.
What will worry him most is the number of English luminaries who had their fingers stuck on the dimmer-switch for so long that they have disappeared into the shadows.
Unfortunately for Gatland these include 2017 Test Lions like Owen Farrell, Mako Vunipola, Jamie George, Kyle Sinckler and Elliot Daly. It is compounded by the serial shortcomings of other experienced English internationals who were expected to make strong bids for inclusion, like Billy Vunipola, Ben Youngs, George Ford and Jonny May.
There was also the failure of nextin-line players like Ellis Genge, Will Stuart, Jonny Hill, Ben Earl, Dan Robson and Ollie Lawrence to make their mark. To be fair to the Red Rose bench-men, many of their problems were the product of Jones’ refusal to give them solid game-time, with the England coach failing to use the Autumn Nations Cup to develop depth, and then compounding the error by consigning them to Six Nations bit-parts.
Based purely on Six Nations form the Lions Test starting 15 I have selected here to take on South Africa has only two England players – with Maro Itoje and Tom Curry named in the pack – and both of those selections are debatable. There are no English backs in the line-up.
Itoje did not have a great campaign, mainly because of a personal penalty count which compromised his effectiveness. The indications were that the lock’s lack of match action due to Saracens relegation had an adverse impact because the superb timing and anticipation that have been hallmarks of his rise to the top were awry. Itoje conceded ten penalties in the first three matches, and a further two by the time the curtain fell in Dublin.
By that time England had given away a crippling 73 penalties in five matches, and the impact of their self-inflicted handicap was emphasised by a French penalty count of 33. That staggering 40 penalty differential goes a long way to explaining why France were competitive in a way that England were not – and Gatland knows better than anyone that English indiscipline of that sort against the Springboks would be suicidal for the Lions.
South Africa have never lacked for top goal-kickers, and with their 2019 World Cup-winning fly-half Handre Pollard on the road to recovery after severe knee ligament damage, they have a marksman capable of inflicting heavy punishment if the tourists concede too many penalties.
Itoje has credit in the bank with Gatland from 2017, but with Alun Wyn Jones, James Ryan, Iain Henderson, and the 6ft 8ins Welsh giant Adam Beard all in second row contention, he will be in a fierce fight for a Test shirt.
The Alun Wyn Jones resurrection during the tournament was characterised by the veteran Wales captain coming third in the Six Nations ‘Top
Tackle’ chart with 76, with two of his back row teammates, Taulupe Faletau in second (77) and Justin Tipuric (86), taking pole position.
Itoje did not make the top ten, and he was also eclipsed in the ‘Lineouts Won’ by Henderson (15), and his fellow Irishman Tadhg Beirne (13). The same two players were ahead of him in ‘Turnovers Won’, with Beirne topping the chart at ten, and Henderson winning six, to Itoje’s five, with Beard on three.
Curry’s ascent to Lions Test status is also not assured. He plays with tremendous energy and vigour, but was not helped by a ragged England pack which was so technically poor at the scrum and breakdown that the openside was denied a solid platform as a launchpad.
It meant that despite finishing equal ninth in the ‘Top Tackler’ stats with French captain Charles Ollivon, Curry was well adrift of Welsh openside rival Tipuric in terms of tackle count and lineout wins.
The same was true in the ‘Carries’ chart where he was behind CJ Stander, Faletau, Beirne, and the Scottish dynamo, Hamish Watson – with the last two also ahead of Curry in turnovers.
The only other England players to come into consideration are those on the Test bench, powerful hooker Luke Cowan-Dickie and recharged winger Anthony Watson, who finished joint top of the ‘Top Tries’ list with Welsh wonder boy Louis ReesZammit, on four.
The main winners are Wales, who claim ten of the places in our starting 23, and it is a just reward for an outstanding campaign which saw them thwarted at the last gasp by France after an epic full-tilt charge for a Grand Slam in Paris last weekend.
Rees-Zammit’s spectacular finishing against Ireland, Scotland, and France lit up the tournament, and his brilliant airborne dive for the corner in the second half against the French would probably have sealed the Slam for Wales but for the ball clipping the edge of the whitewash.
However, it was the 20-year-old Welshman’s ability to come off his wing to threaten France around the edge of rucks, or up the middle, with his fluid athleticism and handling
and with Dan Biggar again burnishing his big-match credentials for Wales, they have pushed the lacklustre Farrell down the pecking order.
A fit-again Tomos Williams has the speed and elusiveness to get the nod at scrum-half over Sexton’s long-time Irish and Lions partner Conor Murray, with his Welsh rival Gareth Davies also in the frame.
In the forwards, England’s Celtic rivals seized their opportunity to highlight the diminished Red Rose authority in most positions.
Rory Sutherland (Scotland) and Wyn Jones (Wales) were the pick of the looseheads, while Mako Vunipola went back at a rate of knots. Irish tightheads Tadhg Furlong and Andrew Porter made a stronger case than Sinckler, who has been much more effective for Bristol than for England – with Furlong confirming his Lions Test primacy by putting the torque-wrench on Vunipola in Dublin.
Supercharged Ken Owens (Wales) was in a class of his own at hooker, and at 34 he showed a voracious appetite for hard-graft, as well as a tactical cunning which leaves his
main English rivals Cowan-Dickie, and 2017 Lions Test hooker George, playing catch-up.
Owens could also be a surprise contender for the captaincy, although Welsh second row ultracenturion Alun Wyn Jones defied his 35 years to remain the Lions leader-elect with his unflagging physicality and focus throughout the tournament.
The second row bolter is Beard – with Jonny Gray (Scotland), and England’s Joe Launchbury and 2017 Lions George Kruis and Courtney Lawes (if fit) also in the mix.
The advantage Beard has is the height, mass (19st/120kg), and mobility to match South African tower-blocks like Eben Etzebeth and Lood de Jager, whereas most of the other Lions locks are a size down.
Gatland also favours lock/backrow hybrids, which enhances the prospects of Beirne – who was one of the players of the Six Nations – and Henderson.
Last, but absolutely crucial, is finding a back row balance which can put the Springboks on the back foot. The permutations are endless, and will stretch Gatland’s selection capabilities to the full, because there is an overflow of talent.
This is especially the case at openside where there are five outstanding candidates – England’s Curry and Sam Underhill (injured for the Six Nations, but playing again), the Welsh duo Tipuric and Navidi, and Scotland’s Watson.
Versatility counts on tour, and that gives Curry, Tipuric and Navidi an edge because they have played 6, 7 and 8 at international level. Although Underhill played at blindside when he was at Ospreys with Tipuric, he and Watson are primarily No.7s.
Faletau and Jack Conan are the leading lights at No.8 – with Billy Vunipola, Exeter’s Sam Simmonds, and Scotland’s Matt Fagerson as outsiders – and while Beirne is the outstanding blindside prospect, Scotland’s Jamie Ritchie and Ireland’s Will Connors are also tall options.
What is clear is that whatever the selection permutations in Warren Gatland’s 2021 Lions squad for South Africa, if England’s contingent is cut to the bone, there can be no complaints.