Old Lion king Telfer gives his verdict on the tour
JIM Telfer believes the Lions will win the 2021 series against world champions South Africa. It is not said lightly because Telfer, below, knows better than anyone how difficult it is to achieve. The inspirational “Everest” speech he gave the Lions forwards before the First Test of the victorious 1997 series has since been engraved into the history of the best of British & Irish touring side.
Now in his early eighties, the former Hawick High School headmaster who was an inspirational force as the 1997 forwards coach – and who played in the losing 1968 series against the Springboks as a rugged back row forward – believes that the 2021 squad have the preparation and strength-in-depth to prevail again this time.
While most of the rest of the world may have been saluting South Africa’s World Cup triumph in Japan under coach Rassie Erasmus, the combative Borders Scot is no Springbok cheerleader.
He says that a significant element in the Lions favour is South Africa’s predictability, because of a failure to develop their game. He describes it as “disappointing” and contends that they are still playing to the same pattern the Lions faced in 1997, and the same that won them their World Cup titles in 2007 and 2019.
Telfer predicts that the Lions will know what is coming in the ‘Covid Clash’ of 2021, and he backs them to have the quality and depth of players to prevail against a Springbok team that has not been able to shed its tactical straightjacket.
“There’s no way the South Africans can be as ready as they were for the World Cup final. This is simply because, although they played their A team against the Lions and Georgia, it’s not up to the speed of the Lions for a whole 80 minutes.
“With the strength of depth the Lions have chosen I believe you could have picked two different Lions XVs as strong as the one that is going out, especially in the backs.”
He says that the South Africa A game was a crucial sounding-board for the Lions: “I feel that the Lions will have a tremendous struggle to win, but they know what’s going to come for them in the first 30 to 35 minutes of the Tests. That wouldn’t have been the case if they’d played the Bulls, so it was an advantage for the Lions in some ways to play their A team, because it gave us an insight into how South Africa are playing.
“South Africa are almost certainly going to be playing in exactly the same way they did in the World Cup because they haven’t progressed at all. They haven’t played any games, the coaches are the same, and they are trying to mould the players into being the same. That’s why he’s got his top front row coming on in the second half.
“In the 2019 World Cup quarter-final I was really disappointed when South Africa played Japan, when they just went out to dominate, and beat them up – which they did, with Handre Pollard knocking penalties over. I’m disappointed in the lack of development of South African rugby. Some of these players coming through are lovely athletes, and they are just not seen enough, and the game doesn’t develop.”
Looking ahead to the three Tests he says: “You can see what Erasmus’ tactics will be, and I think that’s why the Lions have brought back Alun Wyn Jones – not because he’s match fit, but because he has such vast experience.”
However, Telfer has concerns over the immediate reinstatement of the Welsh centurion lock, even though he understands the influence he has as tour captain.
“The shoulder injury to Alun Wyn Jones suggests that the ligaments will be stretched. I am actually very surprised, and personally I would not have chosen him for the First Test – but I think his leadership is very important, perhaps because Conor Murray didn’t take to the role as quickly as Gatland expected him to.
“The fact that Murray was not in the First Test starting 15 perhaps shows that Warren does not have complete confidence in him. So, in leadership he is taking a bit of a chance, but the medical advice now is so specific and professional they wouldn’t have allowed Alun Wyn Jones on the field (if there were serious concerns).”
However, Telfer points to the options the Lions have not just in terms of the boiler-room of the pack, but also in terms of other leaders.
“The other second rows, Adam Beard and Jonny Hill, have done very well, and I’m also very surprised that Iain Henderson was not involved in the opening Test. We are losing a lot by not playing him. He is a captain, and is a typical Northern Irishman who doesn’t give an inch to anybody.
“Henderson’s in the Jeremy Davidson mould (from ‘97) and can play in the back row, as well as lock, so, he’s the kind of go-forward player they need if the leadership of Alun Wyn Jones is affected (by the injury). Beard and Hill have done surprisingly well, but where Henderson has it over them is that he’s been on a Lions tour before, and experience is very important.”
Telfer states that mental toughness i essential in turning the extraordinary lockdown circumstances surrounding the tour to the Lions’ advantage.
“It is particularly important because of the eerie atmosphere of the place, a having to build your own emotion, because you won’t be running o to a sea of red in front of you. It’s really tremendous in a Te match – as those on previous Lions tours will tell you – because of the lift it gives you, and from a player’s point of view it sets the adrenaline flowing for the first 20 min utes.
“My first impression was of it being surreal. There is not a soul at th grounds. It’s as if it’s ha pening on a different
“You could pick two different Lions XVs as strong as the one that is going out”
Even in the European Cup and the Premiership they were starting to get people in watching, but there’s no Lions supporters – although by now the players are used to that.”
Telfer is no-frills analysis extends to the battered itinerary, and its impact on early Test selection.
“Most of the games have been a waste of time, to be quite honest. It’s not the (First Test) selection I expected, especially the backs, though the forwards are pretty close to where I would be going.”
Telfer says that when it comes to permutations in selection during the Test series, due to injuries or form fluctuations, the Lions more than match the South Africans for options up front, as well as in the backline.
However, he highlights that the first requirement will be the Lions pack meeting fire with fire where South Africa’s ‘bomb-squad’ forward onslaught is concerned.
“Picking Alun Wyn Jones in the second row is balanced by having Courtney Lawes at blindside. Lawes is excellent at the lineout, where I think the Lions can match South Africa, or even be better, and Gatland believes the Lions can take the onslaught from their scrums with Wyn Jones and Tadgh Furlong at prop.”
It is when he turns his attention to the back row that the clear-cut objectivity that Telfer brought to the selection table as a Lions coach shines through – especially in the openside tussle between Tom Curry and Hamish Watson.
“I know you probably expect me to go for Watson, but I think Curry is a tremendous player, and he proved at the
World Cup, and before and after, that he’s world-class. It’s almost the toss of a coin with him and Watson – a bit as it is between Daly and Chris Harris at 13, and between Price and Murray at scrum-half.
“In any other circumstances Watson would have been in, but I’m not surprised that Curry is starting because he’s played on the big stage. Where Curry suffered from poor results of the English (in the Six Nations), Watson was responsible for some of the success of Scotland, so he deserves the credit.
“You never know, Watson could come on in the second-half and turn the game like Neil Back did for us in the Second Test in 1997 by winning a couple of turnovers. Watson could be an impact player, and he probably will get his chance.”
Telfer then turns his attention to the crucial battle of the benches, and how they could influence the series.
“We talk about strengths of the South African bench, but whether they are playing as well as two years ago is questionable. Against that, the Lions bench is very strong as well, especially when you see that Tadhg Beirne could have been in for Lawes, Watson for Curry, and Ken Owens for Luke Cowan-Dickie.
“I picked Wyn Jones to start at loosehead ahead of Rory Sutherland because of his form in the Six Nations, and his nose for the tight stuff, but Rory is an impact player, who was a back row forward at 17, 18, and a Sevens player as a youngster. It’s also why I’m so pleased Kyle Sinckler is back in the frame, because he’s probably the best ball-playing prop in Britain.
“You need that to unlock the South Africans. You know exactly how they are going to play against you – coming hard at you in defence and attack – and if you move your feet and body a little bit you can create holes and spaces. Players like Hamish Watson, Sutherland, Sinckler and Beirne can change a game. It’s a very good bench, especially in the forwards.”
While Telfer has no qualms about the quality of the Lions backline, he is as opinionated as ever as he casts his eye over the contenders –- and raises the issue of the unit picked for the opener not having played together outside training.
“I wouldn’t have thought the back division has played together, which is unusual considering there have been five matches. I’m thinking Warren Gatland will be looking to play out in the 15 b channels and out-run the South Africans. However, Kwagga Smith left) could be very important for the Springboks at No.8 – he’s a Sevens player and very mobile, so he could be a thorn in the flesh.”
“The backs he has chosen are form backs like Ali Price, and even though Stuart Hogg hasn’t played much, he can unlock defences. I’m surprised that Duhan Van der Merwe is in because his defence isn’t very good. He gets lazy in defence, and just likes to get his hands on the ball – but he can be amazing in attack. He’s also gone for a midfield where Elliot Daly is a footballer, and can change the game because he can kick.”
He adds: “Van der Merwe is a big brute who is difficult to stop, but the Welsh winger Louis Rees-Zammit looks as if he has X-factor, and I think he will be in the Test team towards the end. He’s got something different called out-and-out pace, and he doesn’t look out of place physically or mentally.”
So, what about the outcome? “I have been on record saying that the Lions will win 2-1, and that is because individually the Springboks have not had the same degree of preparation.”
He adds: “The South Africans are very difficult to beat on their own ground, and they are also very good at what they do – if you allow them to do it. However, with their strength-in-depth, I believe the Lions win the series.”
“Rees-Zammit has X-factor, and he will be in the Test team towards the end”