Liam, Josh must start in the final showdown
Iwas surprised by the selections of Stuart Hogg and Duhan van der Merwe for the First Test. But to be fair to the Scotland pair, they both proved me wrong with strong performances as the British & Irish Lions went 1-0 up on South Africa.
Unfortunately, those two players hit nowhere near those heights in the second match of the series and their struggles were a huge contributing factor to Warren Gatland’s side losing the game.
Rugby is a team game and across the park the Springboks were the better side.
When you realise they won the second half 21-0 that tells you all you need to know.
But this is a Test series being dominated by the aerial battle. The first two matches have shown that the team who dominates the skies is the one which has the best chance of winning the game.
In the Second Test it was South Africa who held the upper hand in that area and it paid off.
Hogg is a fine, fine player but he struggled badly to deal with the Springboks’ kicking game. Hogg couldn’t claim the opposition high balls from Handre Pollard.
It led to a bitty encounter which was a poor watch on the whole. South Africa don’t need a second invitation to kick, but when their opposition can’t collect the ball cleanly, they will only continue to do that. It worked very well from their perspective. I felt Pollard targeted Hogg and Van der Merwe and they just couldn’t cope. Anthony Watson did OK, but his teammates struggled.
Van der Merwe also gave away a silly yellow card for a trip on Faf de Klerk. I’m sure he was trying to play the ball, but he didn’t get anywhere near it and only got the man.
As someone who loves the game of rugby, wants to see attacking play, and a former winger, it pains me to say that the back three selection for the final Test must be more about what those who play can do without the ball rather than what they can do with it.
That’s a sad state of affairs, but it is also a reality and where we are.
I’ve no doubt Warren Gatland will make changes for the Third Test which will decide the series and I think he must consider Liam Williams and Josh Adams for a place in the back three.
Liam has had a concussion issue so obviously I say he should be selected on the assumption he is fit. He hasn’t had the best tour so far, but he is a fine player and one of the best under the high ball I’ve ever seen. They don’t call Liam the bomb defuser for nothing!
For me, Liam starts at 15 on Saturday with Josh on the left wing. A lot of people and especially Welsh fans were amazed Josh didn’t play in the First Test, especially after all the tries he scored in the warmup games.
Like I said, I thought Van der Merwe was actually very good in the First Test. But what I think a lot of people miss about Josh’s game is how good he is in defence. He’s scored so many tries since
he’s been in international rugby that people don’t realise the strength of his basics. He is a good tackler, solid under the high ball, and rarely makes a mistake.
Liam and Josh are obviously both players that Warren knows very well from his time with Wales.
I think changes are needed both from a tactical and a fitness level because there will be a lot of battered and bruised bodies in the Lions camp.
At half-back I thought the Lions were OK and Dan Biggar’s tactics were obvious. He kicked so much
ball even in the South African 22. I do wonder if the Lions are getting sucked into a kicking battle.
Yes, they must deal with what South Africa do and they do kick a lot. But part of me thinks the Lions are putting too much boot on it, especially in attack.
I don’t think we saw any attacking rugby from the Lions in the Second Test. Dan did try a couple of neat attacking kicks (note how they were different to the up and unders), but there was little running play to note. I can’t think of a clean line break and the closest the Lions came to a try was Robbie Henshaw when he was stopped from scoring by brilliant work from Siya Kolisi.
I would definitely stick with Dan at fly-half for the Third Test, but who partners him at scrum-half is a toss of the coin. Ali Price and Conor Murray have both started one Test each so far.
Neither has set the world alight and it has highlighted what I think people pointed out before the tour and that is that number nine was a position of weakness in Warren’s squad. I think it’s a 50/50 call for the Third Test, but I’d go for Price. I think it would be a big call to bring in Gareth Davies from the cold as it will take him time to bed in having not played for a few weeks.
South Africa now have the momentum. There is no doubt about that.
What will be interesting to see is how the Lions try and turn that shift around. They will have to start the Third Test strongly and I think fresh faces will be the key to that.
The rugby is very different on this Lions tour compared to the 2013 trip to Australia, but in many ways the two battles in the Tests are eerily similar.
In both 2013 and 2021 the Lions won the first match of the series and lost the second. Like Australia did several years ago, South Africa put in a huge emotional reaction to level things at 1-1.
In 2013, Australia couldn’t sustain that momentum and fell away massively to be hammered by the Lions in the Third Test.
South Africa won’t do that, but it is also extremely difficult for a side to be at such a hugely emotional level as the Springboks were for two straight weeks. Warren knows that all too well.
If you remember, he caused a bit of controversy when Wales lost their semi-final to South Africa at the 2019 World Cup. England beat New Zealand to reach the final and Warren questioned whether they could play as well again.
Some thought that was sour grapes, particularly Eddie Jones, but as he so often is, Warren was proved right.
He will know South Africa are unlikely to make wholesale changes so I think the best shot the Lions have is to bring in some new blood.
Do that and they have a chance but for me, South Africa are now favourites to win the series.
“Number nine is a position of weakness in Warren’s squad”