> Guscott: Defence will still decide champions
HARLEQUINS ability to defend the title they won last season prompted immediate thoughts that the likelihood is very slim, just as it was when they last won the title in 2012. However, Harlequins chances of retaining the Premiership crown has shifted radically in their favour because there should be a real emphasis on attack again this season as a result of no promotion and relegation. It means that there is nothing to lose at the bottom of the table, and at the top end although qualifying for Europe will still probably count, and might get tighter, all 13 clubs are in a position to adopt an attacking outlook.
The very high scorelines in last season’s Premiership final and semi-finals was in sharp contrast to previous years – especially in the semi-finals – and was not what you expected. Quins have had very few changes to their squad, and are very well equipped to play open attacking rugby, and that has to put them in with a pretty good chance of finishing on top again.
It is a Harlequins team in which the players and coaches appear to be very together. The buy-in from the players is complete, and that's how it should be – with the players deciding which way they want to play and the coaches working on the tactical detail. They will want to continue where they left off after their great attacking showpiece victory at Twickenham in June.
That means they will be praying for dry conditions over the course of the season. This could be a crucial factor, because I’m not sure that Quins have a pack to compete with either Exeter or Saracens when going is heavier.
However, the right mindset can take you a very long way in Rugby Union, and the run Quins had last season in the league was brilliant – although they did not have much disruption with international call ups.
That could change this season, with the likes of Marcus Smith, Alex Dombrandt and Joe Marchant likely to be called up by England. They will also have to contend with having to rise to the occasion every weekend, because every team they play will raise their game in order to beat the champions.
They showed last season that it is very hard to beat a team like Harlequins when they are on a winning streak and bursting with confidence. Set against that, you can already see Saracens rubbing their hands together and thinking, ‘if you play like that our defensive net will swallow you up’.
Saracens will have been humbled by their stint in the Championship, but they will be gagging at the bit to get back at their Premiership rivals. With players like Owen Farrell moving into the last stage of their careers, with only five or so seasons left, it really focuses your mind, making you realise not just how much you enjoy it, but how much there is still left to achieve.
With players like Ben Earl and Max Malins returning from Bristol, and international stars like Maro Itoje, Vincent Koch, and the Vunipola brothers back for another tour of duty, Mark McCall and his coaching team will want to make an immediate impact.
My hunch is that Saracens will be thinking that if everyone plays like they did at the back end of last season, with sides slinging around from everywhere, they will have a field day.
They will back their spiders-web defence to wrap-up their opponents and allow them to deliver the killer bite with their counter-attack.
While there is no question that it is an ideal time with no promotionrelegation for the Premiership clubs to develop their attacks, the smart coaches will have recognised already that you cannot afford to neglect your defence. They cannot bank on sides like Exeter and Saraof cens shipping 30 points to their opponents every match, and, despite the emphasis on attack, ability in defence will probably decide who finishes in the top four this season.
Exeter got a reality check last season as they went from being double-winning champions to losing both titles.
It has shown them that while it is hard getting to the top in and becoming champions, it is even harder to remain there.
It is another level, and as well as being a psychological challenge, there are also the issues with injuries and form that can damage even the best laid plans.
It will have been a huge learning curve for Rob Baxter and his team of coaches in dealing with the expectations of the fans at one of the closest community clubs in the country, but Exeter have a very strong team ethos, a good young captain in Joe Simmonds and – given the strength
their squad – you would expect them to come back bigger and better.
The Chiefs have huge experience and knowledge in their playing ranks, and they will be driven to win and have all the components to be successful again. They will be disappointed about the loss to Harlequins in the final because they had the opportunity to win it – and that makes the disappointment factor that much greater.
At Sale the Alex Sanderson factor is huge, and it is why they were semi-finalists. He achieved such a rapport with the Saracens squad, and appears to be doing the same with the Sharks.
There are reports that Manu Tuilagi has lost six kilos during the summer, and Sanderson is one of those coaches who will always try something different, some innovation, to give his team an edge. It will be a surprise if he does not continue by creating a winning culture at Sale.
Bristol were another team on a roll last season, and the challenge for them is to become more pragmatic. They were league leaders for a long time, but fly-half Calum Sheedy and scrum-halves Harry Randall and Andy Uren have to think about sometimes playing the percentages, because they became almost too predictable in moving the ball all the time from everywhere.
All-out attack means you will make mistakes in your own half, and that is when the good sides will hurt you. The opportunities are there for Bristol, and they are an attractive entertaining side, but if you let go of a 28 point lead, like the one they had against Harlequins in the semi-final, it knocks you psychologically. They have a long season in which to find not only the right strategy, but the right temperament.
There is also the possibility for teams to come from nowhere this season to challenge.
At Leicester, Steve Borthwick has gone back to basics by building a powerful pack, and is trying to reinstil a winning culture. The key to that is not being constricted by too much fear of failure.
A competition that pitches Harlequins as defending champions against Saracens, Exeter, Sale, Bristol, and other pretenders like Leicester, Wasps – and possibly, Bath – is a great mix with the potential for a Premiership season to remember.
“Ability in defence will probably decide who finishes in the top four this season”