Question is:Where are Wales mentally?
The first moment of truth of the summer for Welsh rugby comes at Loftus Versfeld this weekend when Wayne Pivac’s men kick-off their three-Test series against the Springboks. No more difficult challenge could there be for any team in world rugby.
Yet, Saturday’s clash in Pretoria probably presents the best chance they have of stealing a win against the world champions. The Boks haven’t played together since last November and still seem to be in party mode after the Stormers won the United Rugby Championship Grand Final against the Bulls.
More than anything, I want to see a step-up from Wales from the way they finished the Six Nations. Pivac has openly admitted he got his selection hopelessly wrong against Italy and the final game and that defeat still haunts him and Welsh rugby fans. Now is the chance to erase that memory.
He has selected 10 players who were in South Africa last summer with the British & Irish Lions, seven of whom played in the Test series. He has got George North back, a fully fit Alun Wyn Jones and a rebuilt Dan Lydiate. There is no lack of experience and no lack of talent.
Physically, the squad should be in good shape after spending three weeks together. The biggest question will be where are they mentally? If there are any doubts, any weaknesses or any concerns on that front, they will be ruthlessly exploited by the Springboks.
What every Welsh rugby fan wants to see is a huge desire from their team to scrap for every ball, every inch of ground and for every point. We’ve beaten the Boks in five of the last nine meetings and there has been no more than one score difference in the four games won by the Boks. In fact, the last time we played in South Africa it was 31-30 to the home side in Nelspruit in 2014.
A first win over the Springboks in South Africa would be as seismic a shift in the balance of power in world rugby as the Lib Dems winning in the Tiverton & Honiton by-election last week. But there is a chance for Wales to grab the headlines and make history in Pretoria.
The only fitness concern centres around prop Tomas Francis, although he is said to be on course to play in the First Test. His presence will be vital on the tight-head side of the Welsh scrum.
Alun Wyn Jones should be far more integrated into the team patterns than he was when he returned against Italy, but I can see him being used off the bench. Recently crowned Welsh Player of the Year Will Rowlands needs to start alongside Adam Beard in the second row.
Wyn Jones and Ryan Elias will probably form the front row with
“Physically the squad should be in good shape. Any mental weakness will be exploited”
Francis and Taulupe Faletau and Josh Navidi pick themselves in the back row. The question with Navidi is do you pick him at No.6 or 7?
There were a few eyebrows raised when Lydiate was named in the squad, but I can see the logic Pivac applied to that selection. He is a big man who can get to grips with the monster Springbok pack and he’s survived the heat in the hottest of rugby kitchens throughout his amazing career. I’d have Lydiate at 6 and Navidi at 7. That would at least give you a powerful pack to start the game.
Behind the scrum, Wales have a back three of 2021 Lions in Liam Williams, Josh Adams and Louis Rees-Zammit and I’d play the Ospreys centres Owen Watkins and
George North outside skipper Dan Biggar. That just leaves a big decision on who of the three scrumhalves to pick.
Gareth Davies is the best broken field runner, Tomos Williams is the most combative and Kieran Hardy the best all-rounder. I think he will go with Williams, but I’d be happy with any of the three.
Pivac talked last week about trying to cut down on the number of scrums and line-outs in the game in a bid to move around the big Springbok pack. Avoiding one-on-one physical confrontations seems to be a good idea to me. It takes me back to the 2005 Grand Slam campaign when Mike Ruddock introduced the ‘evasion before contact’ idea.
We tried to move the ball on before taking the hit, go down earlier in the tackle or step to hit a shoulder rather than take the fullacclimatised. on hit. Keeping the ball in play will mean fitness levels will be tested to breaking point, but that applies to both teams. When you’ve got strike runners like the back three and North, then it is a policy worth pursuing.
The aerial battle will be huge. South Africa kick the ball more than most sides and the back three will have to be very precise in how they deal with the Boks’ kicking threat. The more spillages you have, the more scrums you get. That is where the South Africans are at their most dangerous, along with their driving mauls at lineouts.
The only problem about keeping the ball in play is that the first two Tests are at altitude. That can make your lungs burn and your head spin, although they should have had enough time to become I always found the first 10 minutes of any game played at altitude to be the worst. Once you got through that, your heart stopped racing and it was easier to focus.
There are many doubting Thomases, Davieses, Joneses and Williamses out there who think Welsh rugby is in an irreversible downward spiral. What the players and Pivac need to show over the next three weekends is that is not the case.
What price a win out there? The odds are hugely stacked against us, but it’s amazing what 80 minutes of dogged determination, ruthless commitment, proper execution of a game plan and belief can do.
Now is the hour for Pivac and his team. Another poor performance in Pretoria and the next two weekends could be torture!