Beware promises in the land of the free

THE USA may bill itself as “the land of the free, and the home of the brave” but when it comes to sport that message should read “the land of the big buck, and the home of American sports”. The protectionist, parochial interests of hugely prosperous domestic sports like American Football (NFL/NCAA), Baseball (MLB), Basketball (NBA), and Ice Hockey (NHL) – and the money invested in them – is why World Rugby’s decision to award the 2031 World Cup, and the 2033 Women’s World Cup, to the USA is an ambitious decision that could result in anything from a major success to a damp squib.

The scare stories began to circulate as soon as World Rugby made its announcement in May, with the prospect soon being aired of its showpiece global tournament having to move from its favoured slot of late September to early November to the summer months of July and August, to avoid a clash with the NFL season.

This scenario has big potential pitfalls, mainly because temperatures at the height of summer in the USA can be baking hot in many parts of the country. In addition, having to pick venues on the basis of a cooler climate, or even air-conditioned stadiums, might not provide the best logistical outcome for a World Cup.

Even more concerning is the probable clash with an entrenched American sporting giant like the NFL, which has the biggest sports broadcast audience in the USA. The 2022 Super Bowl between the Los Angeles Rams and the Cincinnati Bengals attracted an average of over 112 million viewers, which is more than double the 45 million audience for the 2019 World Cup final and dwarfs most Six Nations viewing figures.

Not surprisingly, the NFL and NCAA receive wall-to-wall broadcast coverage by the main American networks, with the USA Rugby bid’s favoured partner, the NBC, at the forefront. This has an obvious conflict-of-interest potential.

Current NFL annual revenue is $18 billion, with a target set for 2027 of $25 billion, and World Rugby should be in no doubt that the sport dubbed ‘America’s Game’ will not be promoting Rugby Union at its own expense.

This suggests that any ‘locked-in’ bid deals in the World Rugby/USA joint venture relating to sharing NFL stadiums in autumn 2031 will come at a significant financial cost. This is because the NFL also has its own plans for global expansion, as was made clear by its commissioner, Roger Goodell, in his annual media address in February, before the Super Bowl. He said: “When we look at how we want the league to grow we measure it in lots of different ways. Most importantly, the fan base itself. How are we going to grow the game on a global basis? We expect to have 200 million fans here in the United States, but our real objective is how do we grow the game globally.”

One way to get ahead is to have inside information on rival sports, like Rugby Union, by hiring former key employees like Brett Gosper, who was World Rugby’s chief executive until 2021. Gosper jumped ship to become the London-based chief executive of NFL Europe, taking his knowledge of World Rugby’s strategic plans with him.

It did not take long before Gosper was talking about the NFL’s intention to not only play league games in Europe, but also to make inroads in player participation. He said: “We’re here to develop the player base as well, and to give that tangibility to the younger audience through the possibility to play, and also to discover the game on our different platforms.”

This dovetails with the NFL’s involvement in stadium developments in Europe, which started with the ten-year rental deal it signed with Spurs in 2018 to stage two NFL games a season at the new Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. This has been made possible by the retractable dual pitch system which has purpose-built surfaces for football and NFL.

It was revealed late last year that a similar retractable NFL pitch is being installed at Real Madrid’s new SantiaAngeles go Bernabeu Stadium, and there has been speculation that these developments are almost certainly the precursor to the NFL expanding by creating two European franchises.

World Rugby’s chief executive, Alan Gilpin, has said that international Rugby Union’s governing body wants to engage with the NFL in a partnership model for 2031, and yet recent soundings indicate that, wisely, it has decided against shifting the tournament to the summer months.

Instead, World Rugby hopes to get access to huge totemic NFL and NCAA (American College Football) stadiums like the Rose Bowl in Los

and the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, as well as newer NFL stadiums, and those in Major League Soccer (MLS).

Part of its wish-list is that American sports will see the benefits of a ‘bump-in, bump-out’ model through which some of the newer stadiums, like those belonging to NFL franchises, can be rebranded for rugby in a seven-day window between their home and away fixtures.

So far, the successful American bid is long on the promise of delivering a coast-to-coast rugby union bonanza, but short on detail – and the devil is always in the detail.

“The American World Cup bid is long on promise but short on detail”