Namibia lead chase but no sign of breakthrough

Unless the earth shifts on its axis or Namibia manage to get three forwards sent off in the first half the Welwitschias will qualify for their seventh consecutive World Cup Finals when they take on Kenya at Stade Maurice Davide in Aix Le Provence this evening in the final of the African qualifying tournament.

Namibia, with their lumpy streetwise pack, are massive favourites against an all singing all dancing Kenya side who possess plenty of dashers behind the scrum but a pack that would scarcely pass muster against some of our schoolboy teams. They were taken to the cleaners up front in Wednesday’s semi-final in Marseilles against Algeria – ranked 90th in the world – but somehow got their hands on just enough possession to win 36-33. It would, frankly, be miraculous if Kenya could repeat such a win this evening but never say never.

The bookies are sticking with

Namibia and although that would spark much celebration in Windhoek, Walvis Bay, Swakopmund and other Namibian hotspots what does it say about African rugby outside of South Africa? A couple of weeks ago Namibia were comfortably beaten at home by Italy A. Why does rugby on the greater African continent continue to mark time? Is there no sign of a breakthrough in 15s or 7s?

Well, as ever, the first point to make is that almost all African nations face numerous challenges much more pressing than whether they can get their rugby union programme up to speed. Life is often nasty, brutal and short and rugby must take its lowly place in the hierarchy of priorities.

There is also the hangover from colonial exploitation, mainly by the French and British, and rugby can still be seen as the sport of the colonial oppressor although that hasn’t hindered the development of soccer – another colonial export – throughout the continent. It is still surprising rugby has failed to really progress in the French speaking part of Africa in particular, especially given the considerable number of players or heritage players from Cote D’Ivoire, Senegal, Morocco, Tunisia and Algeria in the French leagues.

Identifying them, giving up on French ambitions, and making it financially viable for such players to participate in a World Cup campaign is probably the biggest issue but just for a moment around this time last year it seemed like the African rugby landscape was changing.

Ivory Coast, who famously qualified for the 1995 World Cup after which they didn’t play an international for three years, pulled off a major shock by beating Namibia 24-13 in their opening pool game which put them in prime position with both sides then slated to play Madagascar in the next round of games a few days later.

Namibia bounced back with a thumping 52-10 over the Maki but Ivory Coast badly missed their cue. Despite home advantage and despite the Maki being pounded by Namibia four days earlier they lost 24-19 to the plucky Madagascans.

Meanwhile, down in Pool B Senegal hinted at something special with an historic 20-19 win over Kenya in Nairobi which they followed up three days later with a 20-5 victory over Zambia which saw them top the table. Could Senegal be on the charge as well?

So we approached the Africa Cup in Provence this month – it is being held at the neutral venue for logistical reasons – with the thought that both Namibia and Kenya could be vulnerable. There could be upsets. Alas thus far that has not been the case. Ivory Coast, the team that deservedly defeated Namibia a year ago, went down 38-11 to Zimbabwe in their quarter-final with a disjointed performance.

Meanwhile, Algeria dealt with Senegal fairly easily 35-12 and the Algerians are an interesting story. Again, a former French colony, the Algerians are an interesting crowd, a team that rarely assembles in national colours but packed full of useful players washing around in those lower French Leagues. Unlike most north and central African nations, they possess some really big units up front, it’s just match practice they lack, and they will be disappointed to have then lost 36-33 to Kenya in the semi-finals when the scorching afternoon heat also worked against them.

As for the Namibians. They won 71-5 over Burkina Faso and then came through 34-19 against Zimbabwe in the semifinal. Zimbabwe, rather like Kenya, have plenty of attacking potential but struggle to secure their share of possession.

So, we come to this evening’s final and the toughest of assignments awaits the winner who will take their place in Pool A with New Zealand, France, Italy and Uruguay. The losers will progress to the round robin repechage tournament next summer. That will consist of the losers of the Chile v USA Americas qualifier, Tonga, Portugal and the losers of South Korea and Hong Kong.