Tensions on the rise
Comprehensive Economic Partnership.
It is in this context of competition that the United States and China are looking to enhance their regional influence. While both countries have formidable military and economic assets to enable their ambitions, 2013 has shown Washington has an edge in the “soft power” stakes.
Thus, in numerous (but by no means all) key Asian countries, Washington’s pivot towards the region is generally welcomed. Meanwhile, there is considerable angst and concern about Beijing’s growing assertiveness.
In the Philippines, for instance, 81 per cent of the population now regard the United States as a “partner” and only 3 per cent as an “enemy”, according to Pew Global, compared with 22 per cent and 39 per cent respectively for China. In South Korea, the numbers for the United States as “partner” are 69 per cent and “enemy” 4 per cent, compared with 27 per cent and 17 per cent for China. And in Japan, the figures are 76 per cent and 2 per cent for the United States, compared with 11 per cent and 40 per cent for China.
While not uniform through Asia, these patterns of public opinion can only complicate the realisation of Beijing’s regional ambitions. And this is one reason why Xi has been conflicted in 2013 between his apparent desire to show a more assertive China on the world stage, and his recognition that the country’s power needs underpinning by better diplomacy so there is greater international understanding (albeit not necessarily acceptance) of the country’s motivations and intentions.
With multiple potential flashpoints in 2014, it is crucial that Beijing now doubles down on enhancing its regional and global diplomacy. Unless this happens, international perceptions of the country could deteriorate further, fuelling the possibility of miscalculation and an incident triggering an explosive escalation of tension. l