Call for referendum re-run has message for unionists

AFTER all the traumas of the independence referendum debate – anxieties among No voters who feared the worst, dashed hopes among Yes supporters – it might be thought that having a re-run of the whole thing would be wanted by very few. But, no, it seems a higher proportion of the electorate than actually voted No think there should be another referendum in the next ten years, according to an opinion poll.

Some will no doubt regard this view as distinctly perverse. After all, the 55 per cent who voted No might be assumed to be happy with the result and have no wish for a replay. And Alex Salmond, before the vote at least, did say this was a once-in-a-lifetime or once-in-a-generation chance for the Scottish people, implying no repeat for at least 25 years.

Since the vote, however, he and Nicola Sturgeon, his successor-inwaiting, have refused to rule out a re-run. It might reasonably have been assumed that this was done simply to keep the flame of hope burning brightly among the independence-supporting faithful, especially among the 60,000 new recruits to the party. But now it seems their implication that there could be such a poll in the not-too-distance future is in tune with majority public opinion.

Interpreting why this might be, especially when it seems counterintuitive, is not easy. It can perhaps be assumed that most of the 45 per cent who voted Yes are still faithful. And there may be some No voters who now wish they had voted Yes. But is it really the case that about a fifth of those who voted No have now changed their mind?

There is no evidence in the polling material to support that. While there is some evidence that some in the No camp might be persuaded to vote Yes if there was a Conservative victory at next May’s general election, or if all UK voters decided Britain should leave the EU, these are still hypothetical.

Since it seems clear majority public opinion favours a stronger Scottish Parliament with greater tax powers, it might be that some No voters are disappointed with the progress so far towards achieving that. But, again, this is also hypothetical, as well as premature. There may also be some No voters who believe 55-45 was not a decisive enough victory and want a re-run to beat independence more soundly.

It is hard to tell. Perhaps the most likely explanation is that voters, who like the idea of holding referendums as a general principle, have had that opinion confirmed by their experience and therefore think it is not a bad idea to hold another one. This may well include people who voted No. There is no indication how those who favour another one would actually vote.

Nevertheless, the findings serve the important political purpose of telling unionist politicians they cannot backslide on additional powers. The price they could pay for any such reneging has now been pretty clearly indicated by Scottish voters.