Second referendum on cards if Sturgeon’s talks with EU fail

● SNP’S Westminster leader also hints vow to keep the pound may be dropped

A second independence referendum will be held in Scotland if Nicola Sturgeon’s current round of Brexit talks with European Union leaders fail, the party’s Westminster leader has said.

Angus Robertson insists the First Minister will explore all options to retain Scotland’s place in the EU, but another vote on leaving the UK is “exactly what we will do” if Ms Sturgeon’s hopes of securing a de facto membership of the bloc are dashed.

Mr Robertson has also hinted that the SNP could ditch its widely criti cised policy of sharing the UK pound in a currency union in the event of independence, insisting a “range” of other options are available.

The Brexit vote has reignited the debate on Scottish independence after 62 per cent of Scots voted to remain in the EU, in contrast to the figure for the whole of the UK, which was 52 per cent in favour of leaving. Opinion polls have since suggested a majority of people in Scotland now support independence as a means for the country to stay in the EU.

Ms Sturgeon has insisted that she is

ready to “explore all options” to retain Scotland’s place in the EU and has embarked on a round of meetings with senior EU leaders with a view to achieving this. She has also said a second independence referendum is “highly likely” and “on the table” with Scots civil servants already drawing up the legislation.

In a TV interview yesterday, Mr Robertson said: “There’s process that is being gone through to try and understand what are our options to remain within the European Union are.

“It’s pretty obvious that there is a route to being able to stay in the European Union and that’s as a member state. That’s what everybody else does.

“We’re currently in and we want to remain in. We have absolutely no intention of leaving and harming business, harming our citizenship rights, discriminating against our neighbours who happen to be EU citizens and play such a valuable role in our society and our economy.

“We will do everything to try and protect our position and if that means that we will have a second referendum in Scotland so that we are a sovereign state and able to remain in the EU, that’s exactly what we will do.”

Senior SNP figures including Scottish Government transport minister Humza Yousaf and Westminster justice spokeswoman Joanna Cherry have warned in recent weeks that a quickfire referendum after Brexit would be a problem for the SNP in convincing those who voted No in the 2014 referendum.

But the tumultuous aftermath of the Brexit vote has changed the political landscape north of the Border, with Nationalists ready to mould a campaign which portrays independence as the “safe” option which allows Scotland to stay in the EU.

Mr Robertson pointed to the recent comments of German vice-chancellor Sigmar Gabriel, who said Scotland would be allowed to remain in the EU if it chooses.

“It’s just a question of the mechanics,” Mr Robertson added. “But of course it would need the express democratic wishes of the people of Scotland to do that and that’s why the First Minister and the Scottish Government has embarked on this process.”

Ms Sturgeon has met with European Commission president Jean-claude Juncker and European Parliament president Martin Schultz since the Brexit vote, as well as having meetings with EU consulsgeneral based in Scotland as she seeks a deal to secure Scotland’s place in the EU.

Former first minister Alex Salmond indicated the talks were aimed at securing a commitment that an independent Scotland would be assured of a place in the EU. He said yesterday: “I would have thought that’s the logic of the talks and discussions that Nicola has been pursuing with European institutions and indeed individual European politicians.

“And although we haven’t had a statement from the institutions as yet, nor would you expect one as yet, we certainly have had indications from the leadership of the political parties in the European Parliament very favourable indeed to Scotland’s position. I think these have been significant statements.”

Former Treasury permanent secretary Sir Nicholas Macpherson – who in 2014 warned against a currency union between an independent Scotland and the rest of the UK – said last week that Brexit offers a “golden opportunity” for Scottish independence, but warned the SNP would have to ditch its currency policy of sharing the UK pound.

Mr Robertson insisted there are a “range of options on the table” which Scotland could adopt, including the country’s own currency – the “Scottish pound” – the euro or simply using sterling in the same way as Panama uses the US dollar.

“The position has changed fundamentally,” he added. “People who in 2014 didn’t see the advantages of Scotland being sovereign are now acknowledging that there are very significant opportunities in being able to able to safeguard our economic position within the EU.”

A second referendum would need the approval of Westminster, which has control over constitutional issues, but Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson said week that this should not be blocked if the Scottish Parliament votes to hold one.

However, former Labour Mptomharris,whospearheaded the Leave campaign north of the Border, said the Brexit vote should not be taken as a green light for a second independence referendum.

He said: “When the 2014 referendum happened, the Scottish Government’s white paper made the explicit threat or promise that if you vote No then we could end up being taken out of the EU against our will. Scots understood that threat … and they still voted No. So I don’t think what we’ve got is any kind of change in circumstances at all.”

“We will do everything to try and protect our position and if that meansthatwewillhave a second referendum … that’s exactly what we will do”

ANGUS ROBERTSON

Far from subsiding, the rhetoric for a second Scottish referendum is growing louder. Angus Robertson, the SNP’S Westminster leader, has raised the temperature with a declaration that another vote on leaving the UK is “exactly what we will do” if First Minister Nicola Sturgeon’s hopes of securing a de facto membership of the EU are dashed. His remarks come hard on the heels of a newspaper article at the weekend in which Sir Nicholas Macpherson, former Permanent Secretary at the Treasury, argued that the case for Scottish independence “suddenly looks a lot stronger” in the wake of the Uk-wide vote to leave the EU.

Sir Nicholas, widely considered a staunch critic of SNP proposals for currency sharing with the rest of the UK in the 2014 referendum, says there is now “a golden opportunity forproponentsofscottishindependence to reappraise their economic prospectus”.

Mr Robertson has now added further fuel with hints that the SNP might could ditch its policy of sharing the pound in a UK currency union in the event of independence, insisting a “range” of other options are available. These are likely to include a newly created Scottish currency which could shadow the pound or possibly the Euro currency as part of the progression to full membership.

SNP leaders insist that the EU referendum outcome in which a majority of Scots voted to remain in the EU has put a second Scottish independence referendum on the table. Recent polls indicate that a majority of Scots now support independence.

Mr Robertson declared yesterday that “we have absolutely no intention of leaving … We will do everything to try and protect our position and if that means that we will have a second referendum in Scotland so that we are able to remain in the EU, that’s exactly what we will do.”

The hope within the SNP camp is that a second Scottish referendum could portray independence as the “safe” option. But there are major obstacles to this, and senior figures within the party have warned that a quickfire referendum after Brexit may not be popular with voters wearying of divisive constitutional politics.

Arguably the bigger obstacle would be the reaction of the Scottish business community likely to recoil at the prospect of another prolonged period of uncertainty. Of particular concern would be the prospect of having to cope with a separate currency, bearing mind that the vast bulk of Scotland’s exports are to the rest of the UK rather than the Eurozone. This would add to the costs and paperwork of doing business across the border.

Not least of the problems raised by an early second referendum would be the requirements necessary for full EU membership, particularly with regard to the fiscal position. Scotland’s budget deficit is currently some three times higher than that for the UK as a percentage of GDP, and without a dramatic recovery in the oil price, spending ambitions will almost certainly be affected. The rhetoric may have heated up. The economic and fiscal realities remain cool.