We can win, Corbyn claims as he brushes off dire polls
● Analysts warn Labour entering race in worst ever position ● Party could lose as many as 56 seats to the Conservatives
Jeremy Corbyn welcomed a snap election despite warnings that Labour could be locked out of power for a generation.
Pollsters and analysts warned the party was entering an election in its worst ever position and was set to crash to a defeat of historic proportions. Labour trails the Conservatives by as much as 21 points, the widest gap since Margaret Thatcher’s landslide victory in 1983.
If those figures were repeated at the election in 50 days’ time, the Tories could win as many as 56 MPS from Labour and return to parliament with a comfortable majority.
Asked yesterday if he was the next prime minister, Mr Corbyn said: “If we win the election, yes. And I want to lead a government that will transform this country, give real hope to everybody and above all bring about a principle of justice for everybody and economic opportunities for everybody.”
Challenged on whether he would quit if the party failed to win, he said: “We are campaigning to win this election, that’s the only question now.”
The Labour leader said the vote would be an opportunity to present Labour as an “effective alternative”, but last night several backbench Labour MPS were reported to have asked Mr Corbyn not to back a snap election in parliament.
Last night, one of Mr Corbyn’s MPS announced he will seek re-election on 8 June but insisted he cannot back the Labour leader to be prime minister.
John Woodcock, Barrow-infurness MP, said the Labour leader’s life-long opposition to Britain’s nuclear deterrent meant he “will not countenance” ever voting him into Number 10.
In a sign of that there is limited enthusiasm on opposition benches for a for an election fight, two sitting Labour MPS announced they would not run in the election.
Labour veteran and former shadow Chancellor Alan Johnson and the Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland MP Tom Blenkinsop both said they would not stand.
Mr Blenkinsop said he had “significant and irreconcilable differences with the current Labour leadership” and added: “It is because of these differences I feel I cannot in good faith stand.”
But one vocal critic of Mr Corbyn’s leadership, the party’s only Scottish MP Ian Murray, said he would stand in his Edinburgh South constituency and win.
Mr Murray, who resigned as shadow Scottish Secretary over Mr Corbyn’s leadership, claimed there was a “very good chance” Labour could also make gains elsewhere in Scotland, despite lying in third place in the polls behind the Conservatives.
He faces a difficult fight to hold on to his own seat, which Labour won by 2,637 votes in 2015.
“Labour is the only party that has talked about protecting Scotland’s interests inside the UK and the EU,” Mr Murray said. “We need to get out of this race to the bottom of constitutional nonsense.”
Asked about Labour’s prospects under Jeremy Corbyn, he added: “We are going to fight every single seat to win. Even a bad day of a Labour government is much better than a good day of a Conservative government.”
Labour’s election campaign co-chair Andrew Gwynne said the party “absolutely are ready” for the snap poll, which they had been planning for ever since Mrs May took office.
A manifesto will be agreed by the National Executive Committee “in the next few weeks”, he said.
Mr Gwynne told the BBC that the election was “all to play for”, adding: “I think we will win. We will fight to win. I have every confidence that we will fight the campaign in the best possible way that we can and we aim to form a government.”
Liberal Democrats said voters would have the chance to reject the Brexit course chosen by Mrs May and increase pressure for a second vote on Britain’s EU membership.
The party claimed to have signed up 1,000 new members in the hour following the Prime Minister’s announcement, and said it was prepared for the election fight with roughly 400 candidates already in place.
Party leader Tim Farron said: “This election is your chance to change the direction of our country.”
“I want to lead a government that will transform this country, give real hope to everybody and bring about a principle of justice for everybody”
JEREMY CORBYN
There are not many secrets in politics, and keeping a tight lid on the biggest news story of the year, which directly affects every person in Westminster, is a tall order. Yet when it was announced yesterday that the Prime Minister would make a significant statement at 11am, there had not been a hint of what was to follow.
The element of surprise has given Theresa May a real advantage ahead of her snap general election, because none of the opposition parties are prepared for the fight. In contrast, Mrs May was able to roll out her strategy for a Brexit mandate and then turn her attention to Scotland, calling on the election north of the Border to be about a rejection of a second independence referendum.
If Mrs May achieves both objectives, she will have pulled off a political masterstroke. Victory in the Uk-wide poll would be an unimpeachable endorsement of her right to negotiate Brexit on her own terms, and a coveted prize in its own right. But in addition, she could strike a significant blow against Scottish independence if Unionist voters put a dent in the SNP’S current domination of Scottish seats at Westminster. Any reduction in the unprecedented 56 seats won by the Nationalists in 2015 will be seen as, or spun as, evidence that support for independence has fallen over the past two years.
On the one hand it is a bold and brave strategy for the Prime Minister to embark on. She has a slim majority at Westminster, and putting your government’s fate in the hands of the electorate always carries risk. Her predecessor took a risk with his own administration, and lost his job, when misplaced confidence led him to take a gamble with an EU referendum in an attempt to silence opposition within his party and see off Ukip.
But on the other hand, this must be the least risky gamble ever taken with a snap election. Mrs May’s political opponents are in disarray, with the Labour Party at its lowest ebb for decades and hopelessly split over a leader who is never going to guide them into power. Ukip have failed to make their predicted breakthrough, the Lib Dems are nowhere in terms of causing an obstruction, and in Scotland, the SNP have probably hit their high water mark. Even with an astonishing 56 MPS, Nicola Sturgeon’s party has not been able to yield much influence at Westminster.
It’s hard to imagine a clearer road for the Prime Minister. And if it is successfully negotiated, she will be able to end accusations that she is unelected, achieve a stronger negotiating position on Brexit, and bank at least five more years in power.
The opinion polls, and every instinct, tell us that it’s not a question of “if ” she achieves victory in this general election, but by how much. Consequently, this is a grim development for Jeremy Corbyn’s supporters. Those who have insisted that the Labour leader would in time prove the doubters wrong now find that he does not have that opportunity. A snap election is expected to deliver another resounding rejection of his leadership, which in all probability will lead to his demise.
And spare a thought for the other victims of yesterday’s developments: the candidates in both the forthcoming local and general elections. It is inevitable, sadly, that the local elections on 4 May will be overshadowed by the bigger event to follow, and even if general election campaigns do not begin officially until those polls have taken place, no-one can stop the political agenda becoming dominated from now onwards by the issues of Brexit and Scottish independence. What remains of the opportunity to debate local issues has been all but lost.
General election candidates do not fare much better. The battle lines have been drawn clearly and simply, and any candidate who hopes to put constituency matters first, or indeed their own suitability, can forget it. We are being asked to vote instead for where each person stands on two key issues.
However, that is the price that has to paid as the UK enters uncharted territory, and Mrs May’s government seeks to legitimise its strategy. The Prime Minister does require a mandate if she is to make progress on Brexit, and short of a second EU referendum, a general election provides the only means she has of clearing opposition to her plans.
Where we take issue with her, however, is over calling a snap election to seek a mandate for Brexit, then telling Scotland that the same election – where people cast the same vote as everywhere else in the UK – is to be about Scottish independence. Remember the repeated assurances in 2014 that Scotland is an integral part of the UK with the same say as all other parts? Those ring hollow today.
The same can be said of Mrs May’s argument that a referendum in 2018 or 2019 would be too early for Scots to make an informed choice on their future, when we are then given a matter of a few weeks to have our say on Brexit via the general election.
Her tactic of turning a Brexit vote into an independence poll is also disrespectful to the one million voters in Scotland who voted to leave the EU, and want to see their wishes carried out, but are now being told the chance they have to endorse it is to take second place to the issue of Scottish independence.
If the Prime Minister wants an answer on independence, then she should ask that question when the time is right, and not confuse two issues which are too important to Scotland’s future to be treated in this way.