Police warned over numbers in light of raised terror risk
● Plans for 400 fewer officers by 2020 ● Ten-year plan faces tough scrutiny
Concerns have been raised over controversial Police Scotland plans to reduce officer numbers as part of a longterm strategy to re-shape the national force.
A ten-year vision for policing, laid before the Scottish Parliament yesterday, will see a reduction in numbers by around 400 by late 2020.
But there are calls for the force to delay the move in light of the raised terrorist threat and concerns over resources.
Justice minister Michael Matheson said Chief Constable Phil Gormley would be able to “slow” recruitment, but only after demonstrating his force could deliver increased “operational capacity”.
Published in draft form in February, Policing 2026 sets out a vision of what policing will look like in a decade, including greater use of civilian specialists and increased reliance on technology.
Following the publication of the final report yesterday, Police Scotland said the plan would make it “financially and operationally sustainable” within three years.
Mr Gormley said: “The time is now right for Police Scotland to become a fully unified and sustainable organisation. This strategy will enable us to meet the challenge of policing 21st century Scotland and modernising our support structures. Recent events such as the horrifying attacks in Manchester and London and the cyber attack on the NHS reinforce the need for a modern police service with the flexibility to adapt and transform to meet such complex and growing threats and demands.
“The strategy has been endorsed through public consultation and, with the approval of the board, we will get on with the job of delivering the improvement and change that we all recognise is needed. It is vital that we continue to work closely with our partners, public and staff as we do this.”
Police Scotland intends to release a total of 300 officers currently in back office roles such as HR and finance back into frontline duties by 2020.
The force said it would also generate more “policing hours” by reducing administration tasks.
But while officer numbers will be kept at their current level for 2017-18, there will be a slowing in recruitment, leading to an overall reduction of 400 officers by the end of 2020.
Mr Matheson welcomed the strategy, but said any plans to cut officer numbers would be subject to strict safeguards.
He said: “The chief constable has made clear that the shape of the workforce must be adapted to meet future demands and Policing 2026 aims to ensure the right skills mix to achieve that.
“The chief constable has assured me that operational policing capacity will be increased, and I have made it clear that officer recruitment should not be slowed until clear independent evidence is provided to both the public and the parliament that this increase has been delivered. Officer numbers will remain well above the number we inherited in 2007.
“The Scottish Government has also protected Police Scotland’s resource budget for each year of this parliament – delivering a £100 million boost by 2021 – and provided an enhanced £61m reform budget for 2017-18 to support the transformational change outlined in Policing 2026.”
Andrea Macdonald, chairwoman of the Scottish Police Federation, which represents rank and file officers, said the document appeared to be making way for cuts.
She said: “This document is filled with oblique references that we will be looking to cut staff numbers. In light of what’s been happening in recent weeks, that concerns us.
“They talk about returning officers to the frontline, but that’s a misleading phrase. It doesn’t necessarily mean they will return to being the cops doing the 24/7 shifts, the guys who will respond to housebreakings or help increase security at mosques.”
Formed in 2013 through the merger of the eight regional forces, Police Scotland is required to make cumulative savings of £1.1 billion by 2026.
Earlier this year, Audit Scotland highlighted “weak financial leadership” in Police Scotland and the Scottish Police Authority and predicted a £200m funding gap by 2020-21.
Following publication of the draft report in February, more than 1,700 responses were received as part of a consultation exercise. Police Scotland said the strategy was well received, with the majority agreeing with the proposals.
However, staff associations have raised concerns about the level of engagement in the process by both the public and those in the organisation.
Mr Matheson said the strategy was designed to reflect the fact 80 per cent of police calls do not relate to a crime.
Meanwhile, increased funding in the police reform budget and the releasing of capacity “held up in the corporate side of organisation” would be used to increase operational capacity, he added.
Scottish Conservative community safety spokesman Oliver Mundell said: “I welcome the reassurance from Michael Matheson that police numbers won’t change drastically until issues around capacity have been addressed.
“It’s also essential, given the current security situation, that both Police Scotland and the
“This document is filled with oblique references that we will be looking to cut staff numbers”
ANDREA MACDONALD Scottish Police Federation chairwoman
Scottish Government are given breathing space to ensure we are prepared for a range of eventualities.”
Labour’s justice spokeswoman Claire Baker said: “Labour welcomes the Policing 2026 strategy, however with the Scottish Police Authority lacking leadership and not commanding confidence, the government must resolve this urgently.
“Police Scotland must plug the black hole at the heart of its budget. The reality is that many of the difficulties experienced by Police Scotland sit at the door of an SNP government that tied itself to a policy of extra officers that it didn’t properly fund, with support staff being cut and officers back filling roles.
“Michael Matheson says that no further decisions will be taken regarding recruitment until there is planned increase in operational policing capacity. Given the huge financial problems Police Scotland face, that barely seems credible.”
If positives can be taken from amid the terror of Manchester and London or the horror of Grenfell Tower, then perhaps the most obvious is the heroic response of the emergency services.
When terrorists attacked London Bridge earlier this month, it took armed police just eight minutes from the time of the first emergency call to shoot dead all three attackers.
The response time following this week’s attack at Finsbury Park mosque was similarly impressive, with officers arriving within a minute and a cordon in place within ten.
And such was the response to the blaze at Grenfell Tower, local residents lined the street to applaud firefighters after they had finished their work.
The professionalism of our police, firefighters and ambulance service is not in doubt, but it does come at a price.
Every crisis, every tragedy leads to days off being cancelled and shifts being extended.
At times when we need the emergency services the most, we are relying on their goodwill to get the job done.
Since 2010 when Theresa May was appointed home secretary, the number of police officers in England and Wales has fallen by around 19,000, or 13 per cent.
Police Scotland has been protected from similar cuts by a 2007 SNP manifesto pledge to maintain 1,000 extra officers above the level they inherited on coming to power.
But while officer numbers have remained static, huge numbers of support staff have left the organisation, leading to frontline police being reshuffled into office jobs.
And while SNP ministers have been happy to highlight the policy, senior police officers have privately expressed frustration over the difficulties it has caused in managing their budget.
Yesterday, however, justice secretary Michael Matheson confirmed Chief Constable Phil Gormley will be able to “slow” recruitment as part of a new ten-year strategy.
Following the publication of the draft strategy earlier this year, Police Scotland and the Scottish Police Authority said there would be an overall reduction of 400 officers by the end of 2020.
While the handing of more autonomy to Police Scotland to allow it to make its own decisions is to be welcomed, now seems like the wrong time to be cutting officer numbers.
Since the publication of the Policing 2026 strategy in February, the security situation has undoubtedly changed.
It’s perhaps too early to say whether attacks like those in Manchester and London will become the new normal, a prospect almost to terrible to comprehend.
But whether that’s the case or not, we need more frontline officers, not fewer.
In that respect the Police Scotland strategy already feels outdated. Nor is this simply about terrorism. Statistics from Police Scotland show violent crime, including murder, serious assault and robbery are on the rise.
There may be new and emerging crime threats to face in the future, and Scotland could be a very different place by 2026.
But there are challenges, some of them deadly, in the here and now.
Police Scotland may now have more control over how it shapes is destiny, but senior officers should think carefully before cutting back on a frontline paid to keep us safe in a world which feels increasingly dangerous.