Working out what to do about Scotland’s energy supply

Questions are being asked, write Sir Muir Russell and Professor Rebecca Lunn

On 15 June the Royal Society of Edinburgh (RSE) officially launched its major Inquiry into Scotland’s Energy Future. The launch took place more than a decade after the RSE’S last inquiry into energy issues. While in that time a great deal has changed about the way we produce and use energy, its importance to the lives of the people living in Scotland remains undiminished. There are significant issues around the demand for energy and the ways in which it is used; the supply of energy, and the security of that supply; and about the impact of supply and demand on our environment, on climate change, and on the lives of consumers throughout Scotland. The inquiry takes place at an important time for the energy landscape. The cost of a barrel of oil is less than half of its 2014 value. Revenues from oil and gas production have gone from earning the UK Government nearly £11 billion in 2011-12 to costing the Exchequer more than £200 million in 2016-17.

International challenges have come to the fore with it becoming increasingly important to ensure that all members of the international community take action on climate change and live up to their environmental obligations. While both the UK and Scottish governments accept climate change science – and have set targets to reduce carbon emissions accordingly – significant challenges still exist to guarantee actions taken to curb carbon emissions are worldwide, and see clean, reliable, renew- able technologies are harnessed. For its part, the Scottish Government has proposed ambitious targets which look to reduce carbon emissions by 42 per cent by 2020 and 80 per cent by 2050. The government’s new draft Energy Strategy looks to produce half of Scotland’s energy (electricity, transport and heat) from renewable sources by 2030. The decommissioning and planned closure of several nuclear and coal-fired power stations and Scotland’s heavy reliance on gas for space heating are just two issues that must be addressed if these goals are to be achieved.

In recent years, the UK’S energy supply has become highly stressed on occasion. The clear imperative to keep the lights on needs to be measured against wider consider- ations such as environmental factors, affordability and ethics. Scotland has a wide spectrum of current and potential energy sources, including nuclear, wind power, offshore oil and gas, hydro power, solar, shale gas and coal bed methane. Coupled with the infrastructure and expertise available, Scotland has the chance to serve at the forefront to innovate and develop technologies, policies and, ultimately, solutions, to the challenges Scotland, the UK and the wider world face around energy. There are, however, serious choices to be made on which sources and technologies to pursue. Environmental impact, public support, accessibility, energy security, timeline and cost will be salient factors in coming to a decision on where to distribute our

financial, innovative and intellectual resources. Scotland operates in a highly integrated energy market, and in a regulatory environment which is governed under UK and, for now, EU rules. Each level of government plays a different role. There are significant issues of availability and security of supply which must be examined in a volatile geopolitical climate.

The RSE’S Inquiry, Scotland’s Energy Future, will look to address all of these issues: What will lower oil prices mean for the Scottish economy? Are the emissions and renewables targets we are striving to meet achievable, and what action will we need to take to curb the effects of climate change? Can we justify relying on other countries, over whose safety and environmental regulation we have no control, for our energy? No relevant area will off limits to the inquiry.

In order to gather the evidence we need to address these important questions and the Inquiry Committee plans to arrange a series of discussions across Scotland, including holding hearings in local communities, to obtain the best possible information and advice. We will meet with representatives from interested parties in industry, the third sector, community groups and government to harness their experience and draw out the key issues Scotland faces.

One important way in which we are seeking to gather the views from stakeholders is through a wide-ranging public Call for Evidence.

This consultation seeks input on 15 questions across a range of energyrelated themes. Visit the RSE’S website at www.rse.org.uk/ Energyinquiry to respond to the consultation. Sir Muir Russell KCB FRSE is Chair of the RSE Inquiry. Sir Muir served as Permanent Secretary to the Scottish Office. Prof Rebecca Lunn MBE FRSE is Deputy Chair of the RSE Inquiry. She is Professor of Civil and Environment Engineering at the University of Strathclyde.