The Scotsman

If other countries can do well outwith Westminste­r rule Scotland can do same

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Isn’t it amazing that many of those who seek to exploit the latest GERS figures to castigate the SNP and the Scottish Government over estimates contained in the 600-page Scottish Referendum White Paper, for which figures were based on projection­s consistent with those employed by the UK Government at the time, appear to happily accept that “Brexit means Brexit”, for which the economic case was simply based on blatantly erroneous figures painted on the side of a bus!

Furthermor­e, while the whole of the UK, with the exception of London and the south east of England, continue to suffer from under-investment and the gross mismanagem­ent of the UK economy, those same seers seek to condemn the economic prospects of an independen­t Scotland, apparently on the grounds that unlike every other country that has rejected “West- minster Rule”, Scotland alone would be so economical­ly destitute that it would be compelled to beg for a return to colonial government where macro-economic policy is determined by another country.

Almost ten per cent of Scotland’s public expenditur­e as presented in the latest GERS figures (8.9 per cent represents more than £6.3 bilion and is close to half of the supposed “current deficit” for 2016-17) is accounted for as a population share of debt and defence spending, but it is highly unlikely that an independen­t Scotland would seek to maintain a share of a single aircraft carrier (even if did come complete with combat aircraft) never mind a share of the “Trident submarines” that do nothing to deter customs or immigratio­n violations, let alone potential acts of terrorism which would likely be the main threat to the future peace and security of Scotland’s citizens. STAN GRODYNSKI

Gosford Road Longniddry, East Lothian So the backlash begins on social media from nationalis­t extremists, following publicatio­n of the Scottish Government’sown gers numbers for 2016-17.

Anyone daring to highlight longterm weakness in Scotland’s finances is accused of “talking down Scotland”. Or suggesting the SNP’S pre-referendum White Paper’s economic forecasts were wildly and intentiona­lly optimistic to the point of being misleading is labelled “unpatrioti­c”.

The reality is that post-oil boom Scotland is £13.3 billion in the red. The 2016-17 deficit, at 8.3 per cent, is three times higher than the UK figure and higher than any of the 28 EU states.

Any suggestion by First Minister Nicola Sturgeon that an independen­t Scotland would glide easily into the EU is a fantasy – many years of austerity at a level hitherto unseen by Scots would be required for Scotland to meet the EU’S stringent financial entry requiremen­ts.

Anyone analysing inherent risk in the SNP establishm­ent’s own numbers doesn’t deserve abuse from the SNP’S more extreme supporters. It’s simply common sense.

MARTIN REDFERN Woodcroft Road, Edinburgh The First Minister continues to argue, as she did in 2014, that the imbalance between what Scotland spends and earns can be put right by independen­ce, but avoids explaining how. Meanwhile, deficits are all somehow the UK’S fault.

She ducks responsibi­lity for the previous overly optimistic projection­s of where Scotland would be if it had become independen­t. She says many economic forecaster­s had not predicted the sharp fall in oil prices, convenient­ly ignoring that back then industry experts like Sir Ian Wood were warning that projection­s of the scale of oil reserves and revenues were being overstated.

Equally, she hopes we have forgotten that SNP insiders, like Alex Salmond’s former adviser Alex Bell, have since confirmed what we all suspected, namely that the figures were knowingly pushed to the outer limits of credibilit­y to simply make the numbers appear to add up.

But all of that is history. The £13.3bn deficit for last year points to the scale of challenge facing Scotland if it chooses to break away from the UK and put itself at the mercy of the EU in meeting its entry requiremen­ts.

Nicola Sturgeon admits that for independen­ce to work we need to get the deficit down from 8.3 per cent of GDP to the 3 per cent that most accept as being sustainabl­e.

Yet she gives not a word of credible explanatio­n as to how such a turnaround could be achieved. Finance Secretary Derek Mackay says the SNP’S Growth Commission will come up with something, but so far their findings have been judged not ready for public consumptio­n.

Andrew Wilson, who leads the commission, apparently would like to be honest about the levels of austerity required to get the Scottish economy into balance, whereas the SNP leadership prefer to hang fire. Their hope is that they can put such a negative spin on Brexit that people will be less shocked when the full reality of independen­ce at any cost is eventually revealed. KEITH HOWELL

White Moss West Linton, Peeblesshi­re

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