If other countries can do well outwith Westminster rule Scotland can do same
Isn’t it amazing that many of those who seek to exploit the latest GERS figures to castigate the SNP and the Scottish Government over estimates contained in the 600-page Scottish Referendum White Paper, for which figures were based on projections consistent with those employed by the UK Government at the time, appear to happily accept that “Brexit means Brexit”, for which the economic case was simply based on blatantly erroneous figures painted on the side of a bus!
Furthermore, while the whole of the UK, with the exception of London and the south east of England, continue to suffer from under-investment and the gross mismanagement of the UK economy, those same seers seek to condemn the economic prospects of an independent Scotland, apparently on the grounds that unlike every other country that has rejected “West- minster Rule”, Scotland alone would be so economically destitute that it would be compelled to beg for a return to colonial government where macro-economic policy is determined by another country.
Almost ten per cent of Scotland’s public expenditure as presented in the latest GERS figures (8.9 per cent represents more than £6.3 bilion and is close to half of the supposed “current deficit” for 2016-17) is accounted for as a population share of debt and defence spending, but it is highly unlikely that an independent Scotland would seek to maintain a share of a single aircraft carrier (even if did come complete with combat aircraft) never mind a share of the “Trident submarines” that do nothing to deter customs or immigration violations, let alone potential acts of terrorism which would likely be the main threat to the future peace and security of Scotland’s citizens. STAN GRODYNSKI
Gosford Road Longniddry, East Lothian So the backlash begins on social media from nationalist extremists, following publication of the Scottish Government’sown gers numbers for 2016-17.
Anyone daring to highlight longterm weakness in Scotland’s finances is accused of “talking down Scotland”. Or suggesting the SNP’S pre-referendum White Paper’s economic forecasts were wildly and intentionally optimistic to the point of being misleading is labelled “unpatriotic”.
The reality is that post-oil boom Scotland is £13.3 billion in the red. The 2016-17 deficit, at 8.3 per cent, is three times higher than the UK figure and higher than any of the 28 EU states.
Any suggestion by First Minister Nicola Sturgeon that an independent Scotland would glide easily into the EU is a fantasy – many years of austerity at a level hitherto unseen by Scots would be required for Scotland to meet the EU’S stringent financial entry requirements.
Anyone analysing inherent risk in the SNP establishment’s own numbers doesn’t deserve abuse from the SNP’S more extreme supporters. It’s simply common sense.
MARTIN REDFERN Woodcroft Road, Edinburgh The First Minister continues to argue, as she did in 2014, that the imbalance between what Scotland spends and earns can be put right by independence, but avoids explaining how. Meanwhile, deficits are all somehow the UK’S fault.
She ducks responsibility for the previous overly optimistic projections of where Scotland would be if it had become independent. She says many economic forecasters had not predicted the sharp fall in oil prices, conveniently ignoring that back then industry experts like Sir Ian Wood were warning that projections of the scale of oil reserves and revenues were being overstated.
Equally, she hopes we have forgotten that SNP insiders, like Alex Salmond’s former adviser Alex Bell, have since confirmed what we all suspected, namely that the figures were knowingly pushed to the outer limits of credibility to simply make the numbers appear to add up.
But all of that is history. The £13.3bn deficit for last year points to the scale of challenge facing Scotland if it chooses to break away from the UK and put itself at the mercy of the EU in meeting its entry requirements.
Nicola Sturgeon admits that for independence to work we need to get the deficit down from 8.3 per cent of GDP to the 3 per cent that most accept as being sustainable.
Yet she gives not a word of credible explanation as to how such a turnaround could be achieved. Finance Secretary Derek Mackay says the SNP’S Growth Commission will come up with something, but so far their findings have been judged not ready for public consumption.
Andrew Wilson, who leads the commission, apparently would like to be honest about the levels of austerity required to get the Scottish economy into balance, whereas the SNP leadership prefer to hang fire. Their hope is that they can put such a negative spin on Brexit that people will be less shocked when the full reality of independence at any cost is eventually revealed. KEITH HOWELL
White Moss West Linton, Peeblesshire