North Sea reserves will run out in ten years, experts warn

Oil and gas reserves in Scotland and the UK may last just another decade, according to Scottish academics.

A new study of output from offshore fields estimates that only around 10 per cent of the UK’S original recoverable oil and gas remains – about 11 per cent of oil and nine per cent of gas resources.

The research, by scientists at the University of Edinburgh, also found fracking will be barely economically viable in the UK, especially Scotland, because of complicated geology at potential sites.

The findings mean the UK will soon have to import all the oil and gas it needs, the researchers have warned.

Now they are calling for the UK government to take swift action, before the last remnants run out.

They say greater use of renewable energy sources, particularly offshore wind and state-of-the-art solar energy technologies, is needed to replace hydrocarbons.

Study leader Professor Roy Thompson, of the university School of Geosciences, said: “The UK urgently needs a bold energy transition plan, instead of trusting to dwindling fossil fuel reserves and possible fracking.”

Analysis took into account the long-term downward trends of oil and gas field size and lifespan, alongside the break-even costs for fracking.

But offshore industry leaders have rubbished the claims.

Estimates from the Oil & Gas Authority suggest there are up to 20 billion barrels of offshore oil and gas still to be recovered on the UK continental shelf.

“Production has increased over the last two years and we expect that to continue to rise,” said Deirdre Michie, chief executive of the trade association Oil & Gas UK.

“Nine new fields began production in 2016 and a further seven started producing in the first half of this year – most of which will still be producing in 2030. A further 12 are due onstream by the end of next year. Some notably large developments will still be producing towards 2050.

“Advances in technologies are also presenting fresh opportunities and helping make discoveries commercially viable.”

The Scottish Government has also disputed the findings, saying offshore oil and gas has a “bright future”.

A spokeswoman said: “The basin has up to 20 billion barrels of oil equivalent remaining – and this year has seen one of the biggest new discoveries of untapped oil in recent times.”