Renaissance in Florence stays on hold

Comment Martin Flanagan

If aspirations were achievements Brexit would be done and dusted. But they’re not, and it isn’t. Rhetoric is not about brass tacks, more about mood music. So it was with Theresa May’s speech in Florence to set out the UK government’s position, even given its mosaic quality.

The PM confirmed recent white smoke across the UK political divide: a likely two-year transitional period from when the UK formally breaks with the EU on 29 March 2019. The surprise value of this was much diminished as an almost comically porous Conservative Cabinet since the general election, together with Labour’s Jeremy Corbyn walking on eggs on the whole issue, has made said transitional period a given, the only game in town.

May said the UK would pay its “fair share” into the EU budget over that period to make sure none of the remaining 27 EU members were out of pocket, now widely seen to mean €20 billion (£18bn). Again, it would be a non-starter if we didn’t cough up. You cannot have your gateau and eat it.

But, indicating much negotiation in the trenches of Brussels lies ahead, that is not part of the divorce bill covering the UK’S outstanding debts and liabilities to the EU. The parties could still fall out on that.

The finessing was made plain by the PM stressing the desire to legally safeguard the rights of EU nationals already working in the UK, but she didn’t – and couldn’t, given the political repercussions – budge on Brexit meaning an eventual restriction of freedom of movement. Brexit without that would be like Hamlet without the Prince to the Leave camp.

And our contorting one knee to the European Court of Justice in the transitional period? Another red line for the Brexiteers that looks a shade more pink as something of a twilight zone looms.

In short, in a game of five-card stud poker, the UK and Europe have one card face down and only two of the other four up.