Hard Brexit would leave families £11,500 poorer
●Report warns ‘no deal’ risks plunging the UK into an immediate recession
Conservative plans for a hard Brexit would plunge the UK into immediate recession and leave British workers £11,500 poorer, a leading investment bank has warned.
Research by Rabobank also shows that any form of Brexit – hard, soft or through a new free trade agreement (FTA) – would be detrimental, potentially costing the economy £400 billion and wiping 18 per cent off GDP growth by 2030.
Under a “no deal” scenario, British workers would be left £11,500 worse off, while an FTA or soft Brexit would see working Britons stomach a £9,500 or £7,500 blow respectively.
Prime Minister Theresa May said earlier this week her government was putting in place plans for no deal, and the research comes after Chancellor Philip Hammond warned of a Brexit “cloud of uncertainty” hanging over the economy.
To compound matters, the UK was also singled out on Tuesday by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as the only major economy not to see its growth forecast upgraded. Hugo
Michael Russell has suggested that a deal to smooth over a row over claims of a Brexit “power grab” could be done as early as next week, but warned of “trench warfare” if UK ministers don’t compromise.
The Scottish Government’s Brexit minister told MPS yesterday that a deal for joint control between Westminster and Holyrood over agriculture and the environment “could unlock the door” and prevent a constitutional crisis.
Meanwhile, Scottish businesses from football to farming have voiced their fears about the impact of Brexit on staffing, profitability and growth.
A Scottish Government report draws together the concerns of firms and calls for their voices to be heard as the UK negotiates leaving the European Union (EU).
The report says uncertainty is already affecting some sectors such as aviation, with Glasgow Airport warning
airlines could lose the legal framework to fly some routes without new agreements being agreed.
Managing director Amanda Mcmillan said: “A number of airlines have stated they will scale back their UK growth plans, focusing instead on adding capacity at airports in the EU. This has the potential to undermine Scotland’s connectivity.”
The ability to attract and retain staff is cited as a major concern for many businesses, including shortbread firm Walkers of Aberlour, which employs around 500 seasonal workers from the EU.
At the University of Edinburgh, 26 per cent of university staff and 15 per cent of students come from the EU, while Angus Growers warn there is already a 5-10 per cent shortage of workers in the soft fruit sector.
The freedom of movement is also a concern for the Scottish Professional Football League, which has said that the existing flexibility to employ players from Europe and around the globe greatly benefits Scottish clubs.
Firmsarealsoworriedabout future opportunities narrowing as a result of leaving the EU, with television production company Maramedia saying it would struggle to maintain its production base in Scotland without vital EU funding.
Scottish Labour’s Brexit spokesman,lewismacdonald MSP, said: “The Tories are presiding over a shambolic Brexit negotiation and it is no surprise businesses in Scotland are concerned.
“Theresa May’s government is offering no certainty about maintaining crucial economic ties with the EU, nor is it willing to even guarantee the rights of EU nationals in the UK, who are vital to our economy.”
Green MSP Ross Greer said: “Employers and unions have rightly been calling for our 180,000 EU citizens to be guaranteed the right to remain whatever the outcome of negotiations.
“Given Scotland’s unique need to grow our working population, for the sake of our public services and our economy, this uncertainty needs to end.”