Businesses largely upbeat on Q4 outlook – SCC survey

● Financial and business services most optimistic ● But retail sector remains under some pressure

Optimism among Scottish businesses rose again across the board in the third quarter of 2017, outstripping the same quarter last year following the Brexit vote, a new survey out today shows.

Greater belief in better prospects has been expressed by firms in the construction, financial and business services, manufacturing, and tourism sectors, says the latest Scottish Chambers of Commerce’s Quarterly Economic Indicator survey.

The study, produced by the Scottish Chambers of Commerce Economic Development Intelligence Unit in collaboration with the Fraser of Allander Institute of the University of Strathclyde, says the varied Scottish business sectors are “remaining resilient in the face of significant policy uncertainty and a fragile Scottisheconomywhichcontinues to grow at below trend levels”.

The survey also showed that tourism was a stand-out performer over the third quarter of 2017 due to the weak pound’s depressant impact on foreign holidays.

Neil Amner of Anderson Strathern, chairman of the Scottish Chambers of Commerce Economic Advisory Group, said: “The results in our third quarterly economic indicator of 2017 point o a broadly positive picture for Scottish business.”

Amner said the survey results generally “show broad optimism of varying levels across Scottish business. In particular, the financial and business services sector has displayed strong, positive results – with sales and profitability at their highest levels for several years.

“Unsurprisingly, this has translated into increased optimism, with third-quarter optimism levels higher than figures recorded across Q3 2015 and Q3 2016”.

However, the Scottish Chambers of Commerce also gave warning that record high employment levels are increasingly leading to recruitment difficulties across most sectors, while “several indicators” showed the retail sector in Scotland remained under pressure amid declining revenues and cash flows.

A net balance of +39 per cent of financial and business services firms expected revenue to increase in Q4 2017, while manufacturers reported a net positive optimism balance of +4 per cent,

Tourism showed a net positive business optimism balance of +11 per cent, while construction was +16 per cent – the highest recorded since Q2 2016.

A total of 384 businesses took part in the survey. A nationwide bus tour promoting Small Business Saturday has stopped off in Edinburgh after launching in Dundee. The campaign, which comes to a head on 2 December, is in its fifth year and looks to support the UK’S 5.5 million small firms. While in the Scottish capital the bus was visited by the likes of Daniel Johnson MSP, pictured, and the team at local firm Justbe Botanicals, whose offering includes natural skincare. It is among this year’s Small Business 100 cohort.