Russian submarine activity around UK shores asks vital defence questions

The true significance of Russian submarine activity around UK shores seems to be being underestimated by the Government.

The Russians have learnt well from the submarinelaunched cruise missile strikes conducted by the USA and UK in our conflicts over the past two-and-a-half decades, and have now similarly equipped their own submarines with conven tionally- armed land attack cruise missiles (in place of the anti-shipping cruise missiles previously carried).

A handful of such Russian submarines positioned closein off our coastline could devastate UK air defences (just two fighter bases) and key areas of our capital city with little notice (and a high degree of deniability), without having to resort to nuclear weapons.

Such a carefully tailored limited surprise attack on our shores with conventional missiles, would realistically fall below the threshold at which most NATO allies would be willing to intervene and face war with Russia.

Instead it would likely split NATO down the middle and cripple the alliance.

It would also fall well below any threshold that could ever justify using our nuclear Trident deterrent. As such, it represents an eminently sensible threat strategy for Putin’s Russians to pursue were limited conflict ever to break out, for example, in the Baltic states.

Basically use of a limited conventional strike on a key NATO member such as the UK would split the Alliance and scare NATO off further intervention.

That the UK currently lacks the ability to defend itself against such conventional cruise missile strikes on its shores – and the proliferating ballistic missile threat – needs to be rectified as a priority.

If the ongoing UK National Security Capability Review addresses these two points alone by progressing anti-missile defences for key UK sites, then it will have served its purpose well.

Meanwhile UK admirals and generals need to move away from their rigid adherence to head count as a principal measure of defence capability, when there are glaring gaps in UK home defences best filled by anti-missile defences, leancrewed, low tech patrol frigates, and a new type of sonar system.

It is time for the UK to shift the balance of its military capability back towards home defence from expeditionary warfare. DR MARK CAMPBELL-RODDIS

Pont Crescent, Dunblane