Regional statistics alone cannot be used to judge Scottish workers’ productivity

Gill Turner makes the point that according to the UK Government’s regional data, Scotland is the only country which consistently runs a balance of trade surplus (28 November).

This is so if we only consider exports and imports by the UK regions with foreign countries, and exclude internal regional trade such as those between England and Scotland.

This can clearly be seen from the 2016 regional figures, according to which Scotland exported £25.423 billion against £23.275bn worth of imports.

On the other hand, the Scottish Government’s export statistics for Scotland 2015 show total exports (including to the rest of UK) of £78.6bn. This indicates clearly that the regional statistics cannot be used to determine if Scotland has a surplus or deficit in trade with the rest of the World (including RUK) as they account for less than a third of the total. Scottish exports to RUK in 2015 amounted to £49.8bn. Unfortunately the Scottish Government does not publish import figures comparable to the export statistics. Statistics show a 2015 import figure for Scotland of £81.808bn. If that is anywhere near the actual figure, Scotland is running a trade deficit of around £2.5bn p.a.

Furthermore, eminent Scottish economist John Mclaren stated in his Scottish Trends report of 15 January this year: “The onshore Trade deficit has fallen a little in Q3 but for 2016 as a whole the data remains in line for a deficit of around £-12bn, higher than the previous record deficit level of £-10.8 bn seen in 2007.” This excludes oil, but that commodity will not close the gap on its own.

There is clearly uncertainty surrounding Scottish import values, but the available evidence would point towards a deficit, which would not strengthen the case for independence when the current budget deficit is above £13bn and productivity growth is at a virtual standstill. JOHN PETER

Monks Road Airdrie, Lanarkshire Productivity has two components; the first is how hard and efficiently the producers work; the second is the value of what they produce.

It is said that German workers produce in four days what we do in five. But this is measured in value. If the Germans are producing Mercedes and BMWS what can we produce to compete, no matter how hard we work?

The Scotsman is to be complimented for hosting the Life Sciences conference reported last Friday. If we can all produce such high value products our productivity will be great. But that is a long shot. The chancellor talked a lot about digital products. But no sooner did we have a real world leader, the ARM microprocessor, than we sold the rights to the Japanese for £15bn. Short term thinking.

John Peter’s letter (Scotsman, 28 November) points out that the Danes have 33.7 per cent better productivity than us. Denmark produces bacon, butter and wind turbines. We now produce only 13 per cent ofourownbutterandtheprice has tripled, much to the dismay of our shortbread manufacturers. We buy our wind turbines from Vestas in Denmark and Siemens in Germany. These are high value products.

Thefrenchhavea25percent lead in productivity despite working a 35-hour week! Our whisky rivals their cognac, but they make Europe’s most popular electric car, the Renault Zoe, and nuclear power stations such as Hinkley point. Glasgow once had a locomotive factory in Springburn. Now we are buying them from Hitachi.

The UK is paying a heavy price for its de-industrialisation and shift to a service economy.

It takes a lot of coffees to compensate for a wind turbine or electric car. Pinning our hopes to hi-tech breakthroughs is problematic, so we may have to start making our own medium tech products once again.

GEORGE SHERING

West Acres Drive Newport on Tay, Fife