From walls to weddings, what to expect in this year’s headlines
Trying to predict the coming year’s international news proves to be a predictably unpredictable task, writes Jane Bradley
Global turmoil looks set to continue over the coming year, with some of the shock political occurrences of the past twelve months making it difficult to even begin to predict what could happen in the future.
As we leave 2017, tensions on the Korean peninsula are still running high.
How US president Donald Trump will continue to handle the potential conflict – which has seen Pyong Yang launch a number of test missiles and has sparked a war of increasingly inflammatory words between Trump and North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un – will, no doubt, be watched with great international interest.
Of course, potential war with North Korea is not the only problem preying on President Trump’s mind this year.
His decision last month to officially recognise Jerusalem as Israel’s capital has sparked protests across the Arab world andsawthepresidentsufferan embarrassing backlash from the United Nations, which voted to oppose the move. As appears to be characteristic of the president, even the UN vote could not be without added drama as Trump pledged to cut US funding to countries that opposed his decision.
It is also possible that the president’s notorious “wall” along the border with Mexico – as pledged during his presidential campaign – could begin construction over the coming twelve months, although an exact timescale has not yet been set. Eight prototypes were erected in October, to allow the President to select the design which best fits his purpose. The 1,900mile wall, which set to cost $21.6 billion (£16.17bn) and will take three years to complete, could end up being the most expensive capital project in US history.
Amid continuing destability in parts of the Middle East, world leaders are concerned with trying to keep Lebanon on track following the return of Prime Minister Saad Hariri. Hairiri made a shock announcement that he would stepdowninnovember,saying he wanted to “cause a positive shock” in the country – only to withdraw his resignation last month. He had accused Iran and militant group Hezbollah of taking over his country and destabilising the Middle East region, saying he feared for his life. Whether or not he decides to stay long term could have important implications.
While Iran has claimed a military victory over IS, which has taken responsibility for a number of terror attacks across the globe, experts have warned that the situation may not all be good news, warning that the group still has the capability to carry out high casualty bomb attacks.
On a brighter note, Saudi Arabia’s increasing liberalisation – which saw laws introduced which will allow women to drive for the first time and enter leisure centres, as well as cinemas re-opened for the first time in 35 years by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman – looks set to continue. However, at the same time, the country’s rulers will have to be alert for further attacks by Yemeni rebels, who recently fired a ballistic missile towards the Saudi king’s residence.
In Africa, as Zimbabwe settles into life under its first new leader in 37 years, attention will undoubtedly be focused on how president Emmerson Mnangagwa will shape up compared to former dictator Robert Mugabe. The African nation celebrated when Mugabe was eventually forced to step down in November, with many Zimbabweans saying they believed the new ruler would signal the beginning of an exciting new era for the country. Sceptics, however, feared that little would change.
Already, encouragingly, Mnangagwa has shown signs of wanting change, vowing last month to open Zimbabwe to investors in a bid to revive the nation’s ailing economy.
Closer to home, the refugee crisis will continue to affect Europe. Hundreds of thousands of refugees are still living in camps in countries such as Greece and Serbia, many of them in desperate conditions – with official figures from the United Nations’s refugee arm, UNHCR, showing that at least 163,000 people entered Europe by sea alone in 2017.
Meanwhile at the end of last year, some central European nations were taken to court by the European Union for failing to take in their share of people fleeing persecution. Whether Hungary, the Czech Republic and Poland, will take in more than the 12 refugees they have already accepted between them (all of them currently by the Czech government) will be a point of conflict over the coming months.
The problem will come to a head as Bulgaria takes on the EU presidency this year, a responsibility which it was due to accept three days ago, as the new year began.
Meanwhile, Poland’s relationship with the EU did not get off to a good start this year as it began 2018 involved in the greatest crisis to hit the bloc since Britain’s Brexit vote. The European Commission’s decision to trigger Article 7, an unprecedented move and which could see the country stripped of voting rights