Sturgeon: Brexit migration cap

● Population slump is ‘greatest national challenge we face’ ● Economy facing £12.7 billion hit under ‘hard Brexit’ scenario

a long-term decline in population. Ms Sturgeon said a “new narrative” is needed on immigration to show the essential role of EU workers in key jobs and paying taxes, to offset the impact of Scotland’s ageing population.

But it comes just a week after a poll suggested Scots have a similar attitude to voters south of the Border and want to see Westminster retain control of immigration after the UK leaves the EU.

“Growing our population, and particularly our working age population, is perhaps the greatest national challenge that we face,” Ms Sturgeon said yesterday.

“In the period to 2041, all of our projected population growth will come from inward migration. Without that, our population could go into decline and with it our ability to grow our economy and fund our public services.

“So that would be the stark reality for Scotland of a restriction in our ability to attract people to our country.”

Ms Sturgeon says she will decide later this year whether to stage a second independence referendum when the terms of Brexit are clear. But the report yesterday – entitled Scotland’s Place in Europe: People, Jobs and Investment – makes it clear this remains at the top of the agenda.

“As a government, we firmly believe that Scotland’s future economic, environmental and social prospects will be best served as a member of the European Union as an independent state,” it says.

Each EU worker in Scotland contributes a total of £10,400 in taxes which help pay for the pensions of the older generation and fund public services. They also contribute about £4.42bn to the wider economy.

The Scottish Government is seeking control over immigration to be devolved to Holyrood, to allow a distinct approach to meet Scotland’s unique needs which would allow freedom of movement to continue even after Brexit.

The research published yesterday also focuses on the potential impact of Brexit on Scotland’s economy under a range of scenarios.

Under the so-called “hard Brexit”, where no trade deal is secured and the UK would be forced to revert to the World Trade Organisation (WTO) tariff regime, Scotland’s GDP would be 8.5 per cent, or about £12.7bn, lower by 2030. This is the equivalent of about £2,300 for every person living north of the Border,

Other scenarios include a free trade deal which would see the economy take a £9bn hit over the next 12 years. But the least damaging option would be for the UK to remain in the EU single market, Ms Sturgeon said.

Speaking in Edinburgh, the First Minister insisted: “If Brexit is to proceed, staying in the single market is the only option that makes sense.”

The paper was published as the SNP and other UK opposition parties ramped up their campaign against a so-called hard Brexit, with Labour facing pressure to join.

Scottish Secretary David Mundell said the report does not acknowledge that trade with the rest of the UK is worth £48bn to the Scotland – four times more than trade with the EU.

He added: “They also do not recognise that we’re seeking a new deep and special economic partnership with the EU that works for Scotland, and indeed the whole of the UK, and is of greater scope than any existing agreement.”

Nicola Sturgeon’s government unveiled its forecast for a post-brexit More than half of Britons would back a second referendum if the UK faced leaving the European Union without a trade deal, a poll suggests.

The BMG Research poll found 57 per cent would back a fresh public vote if the UK was set to leave the bloc and resort to World Trade Organi- sation terms. The poll, for the progressive Left Foot Forward website, found 74 per cent of Labour supporters backed a second vote if the UK faced WTO terms. The figure was 81 per cent among supporters of the SNP and Liberal Democrats, but just 36 per cent among Tories.