The three possible post Brexit trading scenarios

World Trade Organisation Should the UK pursue a Wto-style relationship, Scotland’s GDP would be around 8.5 per cent, or £12.7 billion (in 2016 cash terms), lower by 2030, compared to continued full EU membership. This is equivalent to a loss of around £2,300 per year for each person in Scotland. This is likely to see a 10 per cent fall in business investment. Free trade deal A trading arrangement without tariffs but outside the single market would mean Scotland’s GDP would be 6.1 per cent (£9bn in 2016 cash terms) lower by 2030. This is equivalent to the loss of £1,600 for each person in Scotland. This is likely to see a 7.7 per cent fall in investment. European single market If the UK remains in the single market by participating in the European Economic Area, similar to the arrangement Norway currently enjoys, the impact of Brexit could be significantly mitigated. Under this scenario Scottish GDP is estimated to be around 2.7 per cent (or £4bn) lower. It would be the equivalent to the loss of £700 per person and see a 2.9 per cent fall in investment.