Hard Brexit case is ‘dead in the water’ after economic analysis is leaked
impact of various Brexit scenarios – now we know why they have so desperately engaged in a cover-up.”
The figures revealed in the leak are broadly in line with the Scottish Government’s own assessment of the impact on growth in Scotland, published earlier this year, and only slightly improved on the UK government’s long-term analysis in 2016.
Yesterday the SNP called for an apology from senior Tories, including Ruth Davidson and David Mundell, for dismissing their analysis. The Scottish Conservative constitution spokesman, Adam Tomkins MSP, had branded the figures “scaremongering”.
“When the Scottish Government published our own impartial analysis a few weeks ago, showing an extreme Brexit could cost each person in Scotland £2,300 a year, the Tories accused us of scaremongering – now we find out that behind the scenes they agreed with us,” the First Minister said.
Mrs May faces a House of Commons bid to force the release of the analysis to MPS, with the chairman of the Brexit select committee, Hilary Benn, asking David Davis to provide an “explanation for the discrepancy” between the study’s findings and the Brexit Secretary’s previous denials that impact assessments had been commissioned.
Ms Sturgeon said the Prime Minister “must now agree to publish this analysis in full and any other analyses, which they are concealing from the people of these islands”.
She said: “The case for a hard Brexit is dead in the water – and it is no wonder that, with every passing day, the extremists in the Tory party are becoming ever more desperate.”
Cabinet ministers were expected to have been briefed on the analysis this week, following yesterday’s Cabinet meeting. Mr Davis was only made aware of its existence after news broke on Monday night.
His junior minister Steve Baker, who was summoned to the House of Commons yesterday afternoon to answer questions from MPS, said he was only made aware of the analysis that morning.
The Brexit-supporting minister questioned the work of civil servants who drew up the forecasts, telling MPS: “The public deserve to see the national interest protected in these negotiations and to have a House of Commons of representatives who exhibit a healthy scepticism about economic forecasting.”
The Tory MP Philip Davies dismissed it as the work of “London-centric remoaners” who were “regurgitating some dodgy figures”.
Mr Baker promised MPS would have access to “appropriate” economic analysis of the UK’S Brexit deal before a Commons vote on the final agreement.
Downing Street refused to comment on which department commissioned the analysis amid reports of a row between the Department for Exiting the EU and the Cabinet Office. An investigation has been launched into the leak, which Mrs May was forced to address at the start of Cabinet.
A No 10 spokesman said: “The Prime Minister noted media coverage of a report purporting to show the impact of Britain leaving EU.
“The Prime Minister said this was initial work not approved by ministers, which only considers offthe-shelf scenarios.”
A government source said the document was an “early draft”, which needed further work before it was ready to go to ministers.
“It also contains a significant number of caveats and is hugely dependent on a wide range of assumptions, which demonstrate that significantly more work needs to be carried out to make use of this analysis and draw out conclusions,” the source added.