UK forecasts show £15bn hit from hard Brexit

Scotland’s economy will be at least £15 billion smaller after 15 years under a nodeal Brexit, UK government analysis suggests.

A regional breakdown of Brexit economic forecasts that were leaked and have now been shared with MPS, show that Scotland’s economy would be 9 per cent smaller in a no-deal scenario, 6 per cent smaller if the UK secures a postbrexit trade deal with the European Union, and 2 per cent smaller if it stays in the single market.

The figures closely match forecasts produced by Scottish Government civil servants.

Elsewhere in the UK, the worst hit regions are the north-east of England and the west midlands, which will lose out on 12 to 16 per cent of growth under a nodeal scenario, while London’s economy is set to emerge largely unscathed.