Peace deals negotiated in stages, finds research team

● University creates online database to use in conflict resolution

Resolving military conflict is more likely to be achieved by taking small steps rather than attempting it in one giant stride, a study of peace agreements has suggested.

A unique online resource mapping peace agreements developed by researchers at Edinburgh University shows that on average, six partial agreements are produced before a comprehensive settlement is reached.

The team produced the online tool, which is being launched at the British Academy in London today, charting the progress of peace agreements since the end of the Cold War.

The database – called PA-X, a Peace Agreement Access Tool – records more than 140 peace processes, producing in excess of 1,500 agreements aiming to resolving conflicts.

Analysis shows common steps towards a significant peace settlement include talks, ceasefires and revision of earlier agreements. Researchers said the resource can help policy makers understand the fluctuations in peace processes and recognise patterns in global conflict.

Findings show around 1,500 of the agreements relate to conflict within states, including Northern Ireland, Bosnia, Nepal, Yemen, Syria and South Sudan. Around 63 are linked to conflict between two or more countries, such as the war between Iraq and Allied forces in 2003.

0 Conflicts within states and between countries are in the database

The resource highlights how many conflicts needed several peace process stages. Syria has already produced at least seven ceasefire agreements of different types. On average, peace processes include three ceasefire agreements.

The resource is part of the political settlements research programme, which received a £4.4 million award from the Department for International Development.

Christine Bell, director of Edinburgh University’s Global Justice Academy, said: “This resource makes accessible nearly 30 years of human ingenuity in ending conflict. We hope a key contribution will be resourcing political imagination for emerging peace processes in some of the world’s most intractable conflicts.”

Former US ambassador Carey Cavanaugh, who has been involved in peace efforts including in Armenia and Tajikistan, said: “The database is a noteworthy accomplishment, with remarkable breadth. It will serve as an invaluable resource for scholars, groups impacted by violent conflict seeking a greater voice in peace processes, and individuals charged with mediating disputes.”