Selling Scotland has never been more important
● Scotland needs to explore new ways of attracting overseas visitors across the country
Of the imponderables faced by Scotland’s tourist sector, Brexit with all its uncertainties has loomed large.
How would it disrupt travel? Would visitors from the rest of the EU still want to come here? What’s been the effect of currency fluctuations? And will the industry have to change?
In the immediate aftermath of the UK vote to leave the EU, a survey suggested that more than a quarter of EU nationals – normally the most loyal and lucrative visitors – would be less likely to holiday here because of the vote to leave. Some worried that they might now need a visa to visit Scotland. And there were fears that tourist investment would be put on the back burner.
Now there are certainly worry points for the sector, the availability of migrant workers prominent among them. But for now, fears over Brexit disruption have been matched by optimism that the plunge in the pound would make Scotland a relatively more attractive destination choice.
Sterling initially fell sharply, with the country’s hoteliers smacking their lips in anticipation of bumper overseas bookings. However, exchange rates have since shifted, cutting the pound’s fall against the Euro from over 20 per cent to around 14 per cent while against a weakening dollar the pound has retraced much of the ground lost and is now only some 5.5 per cent down against the US currency since the referendum result.
So, while visitor numbers have continued to grow, there was no dramatic upsurge. Key determinants remain, as always, economic circumstances in the tourist home countries and in particular the behaviour of personal and household incomes.
For now, the portents look good – though with all such caveats we should take care with generalisations. Scotland’s tourist sector is more complex and variegated than its 5 per cent contribution to our GDP suggests. There are no less than 14,000 tourist business here. All told, they employ 207,000 – one in every 12 jobs in Scotland.
And the attractions are far from limited to Edinburgh Castle and the National Museum. The sector spans hotels, holiday and short stay accommodation, camping grounds, camper vans (increasingly popular), caravan parks, restaurants, pubs, tour operators, museums, historical sites and sports facilities as well as those colossal set piece events – the Edinburgh International Festival, the many highland games, and, of course, Hogmanay.
Generalise at your peril. But there’s no doubting the health and strength of the big macro picture despite the wider uncertainties posed by Brexit.
In 2016 we attracted almost 11.3 million overnight visitors and they spent £9.7 billion. Of that visitor total, 2.7 mil- lion were from overseas, up 11 per cent since 2011, and these spent £4.75 billion. The United States, Germany, France, Canada and Poland are the top five countries of origin.
As for the most recent statistics available – the third quarter of last year – reports Visitscotland chief executive Malcolm Roughead: “We knew anecdotally that tourism businesses across Scotland had a good summer in 2017, but it is absolutely phenomenal to see just how much growth there was compared to the same period in 2016 with overseas visits up by 14.6 per cent and domestic visits up by 10 per cent from July to September.
“Such exceptional increases across visits and spend can be attributed to a myriad of different factors which have worked together to create a perfect blend for Scot-
“Fears over Brexit disruption have been matched by optimism that the plunge in the pound would make Scotland relatively more attractive”
“There are no less than 14,000 tourist businesses here. All told, they employ 207,000 – one in every 12 jobs in Scotland”
tish tourism. Key influences include increased capacity on air routes from countries all across the world, favourable exchange rates and of course the Outlander effect which has had a huge impact with many coming to experience the land that inspired the popular books and TV series”.
It’s often overlooked that the bulk of tourist visitors to Scotland come from the rest of the UK. In 2016 these accounted for 11.5 million or 80 per cent of the visitor total, so the “Brexit effect” would thus be muted. That does not mean the RUK market is of no concern. Visitor numbers from the rest of the UK fell by 14 per cent between 2011 and 2016 – a tough period for household incomes and discretionary spending across the UK – and, of course, the persistent allure of warmer climes such as Spain, rather than a staycation break at home.
However, here, too, the omens are good. Says Roughead: “We are noticing a real uplift in the staycation market with less people flying out of the UK for the first time in a number of years, meaning many are simply getting out and about exploring their own country.”
As for the bigger UK picture post-brexit, tourist numbers have strengthened. The UK overall saw tourism hit record highs last year, with overseas visitor numbers rising 4.6 per cent to 40.3 million.
And Visitbritain predicts it could be as high as 41.7 million this year, bringing almost £27 billion to the economy. Here Scotland has more than held its own, helped by new Glasgow toronto and Edinburgh washington DC air routes.
What, then, of longer term adverse Brexit consequentials? An immediate concern is the availability of migrant, particularly eastern European, labour for hotels and restaurants. This problem could soon be acute as there are some 17,000 non-uk EU nationals employed in Scotland’s tourism sector – just over 13 per cent of the total.
Another worry is the impact of the weaker pound on restaurants and hotels as we are a net food importer, and rising costs bring a squeeze on profit margins and higher prices for customers.
And then there is the prospect that certain areas such as Edinburgh could be hitting ‘peak tourism’ – that Scotland’s capital is already fit to burst in the summer and autumn seasons. So Scotland’s tourism bodies need to think of new ways to encourage overseas visitors, not just out of London but also to explore beyond Edinburgh and the Strathclyde region – siting more attractions in the Highlands and Islands, perhaps, and renewing the scenic routes to improve the touring experience.
In any event, Brexit or no, building on our tourism sector is critical, because it is our unique signature on the face of the world, and our scenery regularly voted among the most stunning on earth. It is a wonderful asset and deserves every effort to improve on our visitor amenity and service.