BREXIT EXPLAINED – PART FOUR

And we need policies that will encourage immigration.”

All this strongly suggests that the UK government’s policy of a net migration target does not fit with our needs for more immigration.

But here, in the face of widespread voter clamour down south for tighter controls on immigration, an apparent closing door has been pushed ajar in a move that could have major relevance for Scotland. The UK government recently announced it was relaxing immigration rules to allow in more non-eu doctors and nurses, excluding them from the visa cap to address skills shortages in the NHS.

But why should this relaxation be confined to the NHS? What of skills shortages in other areas of In this, the fourth of our Brexit Explained supplements, we look at the issues surrounding immigration and the movement of people.

As we wait to see details of the government’s post-brexit immigration policy, we have pulled together some of the main arguments as we seek to make sense of where we are and where we might be going.

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That inevitably raises questions about why Scotland should need to resort automatically to migrant labour. Much is made of the recent record levels of numbers in work in Scotland – 75.2 per cent of the working age population is in work, up 18,000 on a year ago and close to an all-time high.

But arguably as much attention needs to be paid to our economic inactivity rate – those not in work, not receiving unemployment benefit and not in education or training schemes.

Scotland has some 729,000 or 21. 4 per cent of the working age population “economically inactive”. A breakdown by age reveals that almost 15 per cent of the population aged 25 to 34 are “inactive”, rising to 38 per cent among those aged 16 to 24.

Even allowing for sickness, disability and unpaid caring duties for family members, this is a high figure – and even more remarkable when considering that, according to Skills Development Scotland, some £2 billion of public money is spent each year on skills training. Encouraging more migration should not obscure or lessen the need to encourage more of the home working age population into work.

At the same time, there would need to be regulatory controls in place to avoid Scotland simply becoming a “pass through” or transit destination for skilled migrants who arrive in Scotland but then move south into England. That risk would be heightened if, for example, income tax rates for middle and higher earners settle at higher levels than those in the rest of the UK. This would suggest the need for border controls between England and Scotland. But that’s not what most would wish to see.

Nor should we opt for a clean break with UK controls and pursue an “open door” policy, should we be blind to the limits of our capacity to cope with an uncontrolled influx. That inevitably brings greater responsibilities on welfare and housing costs.

So far, Scotland can take pride that we have coped well with integration. And we have avoided the political turbulence and policy chaos that is now engulfing continental Europe over the free movement of peoples.

But there are constraints. According to Shelter, over the three-year period 201417, one million people in Scotland (each year) were in relative poverty after they had paid their housing costs. Some 16 per cent of people in Scotland were living in relative poverty – around 860,000 people each year. This compares to 15 per cent in the previous three-year period and suggests a slowly rising trend since the all-time low in 2011-14.

So there is a compelling case for visa cap exemptions for skilled labour in Scotland – but common sense suggests caution before going all-out for “open door”.

“The numbers of those aged 65 to 74 are forecast to rise by 17 per cent over the next 25 years”