Ducks in a row

Though Holyrood is in recess, it’ll be business as usual for the SNP: pursuing independence.

Almost inevitably, in October Nicola Sturgeon will demand another independence referendum, confident Theresa May will repeat “now is not the time”. It isn’t time for the Yes movement either – opinion polls determinedly hover at around 45 per cent. Sturgeon’s demand will aim to mollify Yes diehards while manufacturing a grievancemaking culture until the 2021 Holyrood election. Then she pins her hopes on a nationalist majority, not to govern but to stage indyref2 in 2023.

Sturgeon needs time to get her ducks in a row. Her fingers are crossed for a “no deal” Brexit plus tough economic prospects for postbrexit UK over many years. Meanwhile, the Growth Commission’s reality check aims to embed the unpalatable – that independence will create austerity. Ian Blackford’s Commons theatrics are about trying to engender “them and us” sentiment. The Cabinet reshuffle emphasises independence with a domestic agenda as window-dressing.

Whatever Sturgeon may claim this autumn, she’s diligently putting the building blocks in place to achieve her independence dreams during the next Holyrood term.

MARTIN REDFERN Woodcroft Road, Edinburgh