No-deal Brexit threatens fragile food supply lines, warns Andrew Mccornick

Atwo-minute delay at UK customs could result in a 17-mile tailback – so warned the Port of Dover authority recently. For the agricultural industry, which relies on ‘just in time’ processes to trade in fresh produce, this is a deep concern with the rhetoric around a ‘no deal’ Brexit continuing to build.

As Scotland’s largest agricultural organisation representing more than 9,000 farmers, crofters and growers, NFU Scotland has always been clear: ‘no deal’ would be the worst-case scenario and tantamount to a chaotic cliff-edge change that we are desperately trying to avoid.

It would mean no transition period until December 2020, which would be hugely destabilising for farming. It would also mean hard borders with the EU and vast export tariffs on some of our most iconic Scottish produce.

There would be no specific arrangements for the movement of people, leading to severe labour shortages in agriculture and foodprocessing. There would also be no managed transition to new domestic agricultural policies. Behind the headlines, these factors are very real. Over the last 45 years, UK agri-food has become deeply integrated within the EU policy and trading framework. And it is much more dependent on EU markets than the EU is on the UK – with the exception of Ireland, no EU country sends more than 10 per cent of its food exports here.

Since the referendum, NFU Scotland has been clear in its preference for the UK to remain within the EU Single Market and Customs Union. We have not won the argument on that, but in the time that’s now left to strike a deal, the Prime Minister’s Chequers position is the closest possible outcome to it. NFU Scotland will continue to push every MP in Scotland to back this deal; a ‘no deal’ scenario is simply not an option for us.

The growing interest of the Scottish public in the origin and standards of their food is hugely important for our sector as we establish a connection between field and fork. Creating shorter supply chains and improving the visibility and availability of local, fresh produce on our shelves is a win-win for producer and consumer. Nothing exemplified the fragility of these supply chains better than the ‘empty shelves’ the country experienced during the ‘Beast from the East’ this year. The storm exposed a culture of short-termism and a lack of planning in our supply chains with goods left undelivered, despite the Herculean effort of farmers who battled through the Arctic conditions to milk cows and tend livestock.

In the last few weeks, we’ve experienced a prolonged dry spell. Whilst the Great Scottish Summer of 2018 has been welcome to some, it caught many farmers out – with the exceptionally dry weather severely hampering crop and grass growth and the production of winter feed. This led to crisis talks with governments in recent weeks.

Every day our industry is being challenged to survive and adapt. NFU Scotland has launched a straw-and-feed campaign #Nfushowdoyouplan to get farmers thinking about their business needs and to work collaboratively. Planning ahead is not just important to deal with changing weather patterns, but the shifting political landscape too. With months to go until 29 March, when Brexit becomes a reality, there are significant questions that still need answers. A deal on the UK’S withdrawal gives us an opportunity to manage this change, offering the certainty that businesses and society need. Andrew Mccornick is NFU Scotland’s director