More than 100 Leave seats ‘now back Remain’
● Many ‘Leave’ constituencies have switched, research shows ● SNP still split over demands for a second referendum
More than 100 Westminster constituencies which backed Leave in the 2016 referendum would now vote to remain in the European Union, according to new analysis of polling.
The findings suggested that most seats in England, Scotland and Wales now contain a majority of voters who want to stay in the EU.
The analysis will increase pressure on Jeremy Corbyn to reconsider Labour’s refusal to give its backing to a second referendum on EU membership.
Liberal Democrat leader Sir Vince cable said :“whether someone voted to leave or stay in the EU in 2016, nearly everyone is disillusioned by the mess the Conservatives have made of Brexit.”
More than 100 Westminster constituencies that backed Leave in the 2016 referendum would now vote to remain in the European Union, according to new analysis of polling.
The findings suggested that most seats in Scotland, England and Wales now contain a majority of voters who want to stay in the EU.
But it comes amid claims of splits within the SNP hierarchy over a new Brexit referendum, with Nicola Sturgeon and Westminster leader Ian Blackford said to be at odds with other senior party figures more amenable to a second vote.
Among constituencies found to have switched from Leave to Remain were arch-brexiteer Boris Johnson’s Uxbridge and South Ruislip, Michael Gove’s Surrey Heath and the seats of pro-brexit Labour MPS Frank Field in Birkenhead and Graham Stringer in Blackley and Broughton.
The analysis suggested the development was driven by growing doubts about the case for Brexit among Labour voters in the north of England and Wales.
The findings will increase pressure on Jeremy Corbyn to reconsider Labour’s refusal to give its backing to a second referendum on EU membership
Even though polls regularly report a strong lead for Remain among Labour voters, a majority of the party’s constituencies backed Brexit in 2016, leaving party strategists wary of any suggestion that it might not deliver withdrawal.
The figures were produced by consumer analytics company Focal data, drawing on two Yougov polls of a total of more than 15,000 people.
They found that 112 out of the 632 seats in England, Scotland and Wales had switched from Leave to Remain since the referendum. These included 97 English seats, 14 in Wales and one – Banff and Buchan – in Scotland.
Under the Focaldata model, 341 constituencies now have a Remain majority, up from 229 in 2016.
The analysis, conducted for the Best for Britain campaign for a second referendum and the Hope Not Hate campaign against racism, puts Remain on 53 per cent support, against 47 per cent backing for Leave.
Liberal Democrat leader Sir Vince Cable, who spoke at a rally of People’s Vote supporters in Bristol at the weekend, said: “Whether someone voted to leave or stay in the EU in 2016, nearly everyone is disillusioned by the mess the Conservatives have made of Brexit.
“This research is yet more compelling evidence that the British people must be given the final say on any – or no – Brexit deal. The shallow argument against giving the people their say diminishes towards nothingness with every passing day.”
Sir Vince told the rally that opponents of Brexit must work together “as a team” across party divides in the drive for a second EU referendum. He was joined by Conservative MP for Totnes Sarah Wollaston.
But there is little sign of any imminent move by the SNP leadership to get behind such a second vote. Ms Sturgeon has only said she will not stand in the way of a second vote, but other figures such as Brexit minister Mike Russell and Edinburgh MP Tommy Sheppard have been more enthusiastic. The precedent it may set for a re-run of a future independence referendum
“yes” vote are at the heart of SNP concerns.
An SNP spokesman said; “We still have absolutely no idea what kind of Brexit we are facing - with a no deal now becoming a real possibility.
“For people suggesting another Brexit referendum the question is how can they guarantee that the views of Scottish voters will not be ignored again - as they so clearly were in the first vote: what safeguards will there be to avoid that?”
But Liberal Democrat MSP Tavish Scott said: “The SNP are as split on Europe as the Tories and Labour. The case for asking people whether they agree or not with whatever deal is presented later this year is unanswerable. It is time sensible SNP people got behind that.”