Reflecting on a dramatic summer

In exactly seven months, the UK will be waking up outside the European Union. Much sooner than that, the country will learn the terms of its departure. We are entering the decisive stage of the Brexit journey.

Even now, though, little is clear. A new Brexit Secretary, Dominic Raab, has thrown himself into the job with a commitment and vigour that critics often found lacking in his predecessor. Mr Raab will be in Brussels next week for his third meeting with the EU’S chief negotiator Michel Barnier, almost as many David Davis held in 2018 before his resignation.

For most of the short time he has been in charge of getting a good deal from Brussels, however, the Brexit Secretary has been talking about what happens if he fails to get any deal at all. Over the summer, ministers from EU member states gave a no-deal scenario 50-50 odds. Liam Fox, the International Trade Secretary, was even more pessimistic, suggesting no-deal was a 60-40 likelihood. How have we got here?

For starters, a withdrawal agreement that was once expected to be signed off by European leaders at a summit in October remains incomplete. A “backstop” for the Irish border remains by far the biggest obstacle, but it isn’t the only one: the two sides have yet to sort out issues around data sharing and geographical indicators for produce.

Mr Barnier has suggested early November is a more realistic goal, but he also warned that talks can’t realistically run until the end of the year. And while negotiators can at least claim that most of the withdrawal agreement is on paper, when it comes to the future relationship between the UK and the EU, significant differences on principle remain.

Few are talking about the Chequers plan that nearly collapsed the government at the start of the summer in the present tense. Out of respect for domestic politics, Mr Barnier did it discreetly, but he killed off Chequers as a meaningful option shortly after it was unveiled. It is little more popular at Westminster, whose return from the summer break next week brings the risk of a fresh breakdown in the uneasy three-way truce between ministers, Brexiteers and pro-eu Tory MPS.

Against that backdrop, it wasn’t an easy first assignment for Mr Raab in front of the Westminster press pack, unveiling the first batch of nodeal plans while insisting that they won’t be needed. Businesses from farming to haulage to higher education came away feeling scant reassurance about the impact a nodeal Brexit would have on their sectors.

With so much up in the air, and so few satisfied with the limited options on the table, it means a turbulent party conference season – for al parties.

The Liberal Democrats are locked in a debate with themselves about their future. Vince Cable appears poised to make the Lib Dems the medium for an Emmanuel Macronstyle insurgency, opening the party up to a future leader from outside politics – but that can only happen if colleagues in Brighton agree.

Labour’s gathering in Liverpool will see a bid by proeu members and MPS to force a change to party policy from the conference floor, in favour of a so-called People’s Vote. It’s unlikely to pass, but it will add to pressure on Jeremy Corbyn to keep softening his stance on Brexit. In the background, rumours of a postbrexit breakaway by as many as a dozen Labour MPS, angry at Mr Corbyn over Europe and much else, have only grown.

Just weeks before EU leaders are likely to give her proposals the thumbs-down, Theresa May will go to the Tory conference in Birmingham seeking an endorsement of her stewardship of Brexit. That task will be even harder with former ministers Mr Davis and Boris Johnson whipping up opposition, and with Nigel Farage and Aaron Banks encouraging infiltration of local Conservative parties to heap pressure on pro-eu MPS.

The end of a long, hot summer will bring no relief from the drama.