Warning over rising cull levels and low calf figures

With official figures for 2018 showing that cu ll cow slaughterings stood at their highest level for ten years while those of prime heifers was at a five -year high, there is little sign of any rebuilding of the UK’S national breeding herd.

Crunching the numbers, Stuart Ashworth, director of economic services with Quality Meat Scotland, said that while the calf registration figures for GB as a whole had fallen by 1.8 per cent during the year, those for Scotland had fallen even faster – and were down by 2.8 per cent.

“This decline in calf registrations during 2018 comes on the back of a decline of 0.25 per cent in 2017 and puts Scottish calf registrations to their lowest point since 2013 when the poor weather of 2012 impacted on animal productivity ,” said Ashworth.

He said that, based on calf registrations alone, prime beef production was likely to decline during 2019, but added that this would ultimately be influenced by the level of heifer reten- tions for breeding. But he said that, over a number of months, there had been year-on-year increases in the numbers of prime heifers being slaughtered in British abattoirs: “In the short-term, increases in the number of beef heifer registrations would allow for a continued growth in prime beef heifers reaching abattoirs.

“This would mitigate any decline in beef production in the short-term but, of course , not indicate any growth in the breeding herd.”

He admitted that any increase in average carcase weights could also miti - gate some of the decline – but added that this would be against a background of falling carcase weights seen in recent years times due in part to abattoirs tightening their specs.

And while weights had crept up slightly during 2018 after a substantial fall in 2017, he believed this was probably a reflection of the greater proportion of beef-sired animals in the kill than a conscious move to heavier cattle.

But Ashworth added that the tight culling of livestock during 2018 had placed an additional 10,000 tonnes of beef on to the market – with this sector accounting for a quarter of all beef production during that year. However, he added that the heavy level of cull last year could lead to a slight fall in cull beef production in the current year.

With continued B rexit uncertainty dominating the market, Ash worth believed that decisions taken by producers on the future size of their breeding herds could have a major influence on both production levels and prices during 2019. l Industry figures released by K ant arWorl panel, which provides market information for the retail trade, showed that despite a high level of media attention, “veganuary” had had little impact on the sale of meat. “When we focus on the last four weeks when Veganuar y was running, we’ve seen flat volumes for primary meat and poultry, with fish still in strong grow th, so any impact is minimal on the core categories,” said a spokesman.