Risk of no-deal Brexit to Scotland ‘remains high’

●Economists warn of a recession lasting into 2020 amid no sign of compromise

The risk of Scotland being plunged into recession with a no-deal Brexit “remains high”, a stark report by leading economists today warns.

The Fraser of Allander Institute says last week’s extension of the UK’S EU departure date until 31 October has only “kicked the can down the road”.

There are now fears the unrelenting focus on EU departure has “crowded out” important issues about the key structural changes that Scotland’s economy is now facing.

And political leaders north of the Border have come under fire over Holyrood’s long-term failure to deliver stronger growth as the 20th anniversary of the Scottish Parliament nears.

A range of scenarios for growth are set out in the institute’s latest economic commentary, from a disorderly Brexit – in which case Scotland is likely to enter recession – to a scenario whereby confidence returns and nearer trend growth is likely.

Fraser of Allander Institute director Professor Graeme Roy said: “Last week’s announcement to move the deadline for the UK’S departure from the EU to October has helped to reduce the imminent threat of a ‘no-deal’ outcome impacting upon

Scotland should be a “thriving and driving force within the EU”, Nicola Sturgeon has said.

And she will step up calls for a second referendum on Brexit in a keynote speech today.

The SNP leader said yesterday the Brexit process has demonstrated the power that small independent countries have in the EU. In a statement published by the SNP, she questioned whether the UK government would “finally listen” to Scotland.

She said: “It is notable that of the 27 independent countries that decided the UK’S future last week, 12 of them are smaller than or similar in size to Scotland.

“Scotland should be a thriving and driving force within the EU. Instead we face being forced to the margins.

“In fact, one of the greatest ironies of the UK’S attempts to leave the EU in a quest to ‘take back control’ is that we have instead seen the power that small, independent countries actually have within the EU.”

Ms Sturgeon will make a keynote address to the STUC conference in Dundee later today where she will call for the current Brexit talks with Labour to be opened up to all opposition parties to secure a deal that can command support across the Commons.

Any deal that is arrived at is likely to be very different from what many voters thought they were promised. It should therefore be put to the people again.

“A second referendum is now the best way of resolving Brexit.”