Shutting down North Sea oil within 15 years could result in global starvation

Richard Dixon, Scottish director of the Friends of the Earth, is pushing for the shutdown of North Sea oil once a further 3.4 billion barrels of oil equivalent has been produced – less than the expected ultimate recover y of 6 billion barrels in the most likely case. This would bring about the demi se of North Sea oil within 15 years. The action is required, he argues, to allow the UK to meet its commitments to restricting global climate change.

While this proposal might appear to be “common sense” based on sound science, it ducks the main issue: how to deal with an even uglier legacy of Big Oil than climate change: one that is hardly ever discussed.

Since 1950 the human global population has rocketed from 2.5 bill ion to 7.7bn today, a huge increase of over 5bn. The year 1950 was also a time when a vast amount of oil came on stream from the Middle East and North Africa. The benefits of cheap oil led to Western European countries shifting their energy consumption from coal to oil over the next 30 years.

What some academics call “the great acceleration” kicked off in 1950. It was the date when human global activity ramped up enormously. For example, thousands of new dams were built, the demand for water increased substantially and the use of fertiliser on fields increased by almost a factor of ten. The world also saw increasing urban is ation on the back of cheap oil, from about 30 per cent of the human population to about 55 per cent today.

And that’s the big problem. More than half of the world’s population live in urban areas. All of them are three lunch es away from starvation; all dependent on oil to fuel tractors to produce their food, together with ships and lorries to transport it to their shops. What exists here is a humongous blip of population growth currently sustained by cheap oil. Take away that oil and what happens? An unimaginable disaster on a global scale. The situation can be likened to a van half teetering on the edge of a cliff which hasn’t quite tipped over yet.

Climate change is a real problem facing the world today. However, it can only be sensibly addressed together with the issue of keeping the world’s urban population fed. The solution is not to first shut down the oil industry. The solution is a two-step process: fix urban transport energy needs using alternative technology and then deal with oil production. The first part requires a concerted effort by politicians and technology companies; it will probably take much longer than 15 years. This outcome must be based on proper planning and a commitment to investment and timing. Vague mutterings that something ought to happen are useless.

The proposal to shut down North Sea oil within 15 years is a kneejerk reaction to the problem of climate change and one that hasn’t been properly thought through. All concerned, including the Friends of the Earth, should focus their attention on lobbying politicians to solve the urban transport issue first.

MIKE SHEPHERD

Green Street Cruden Bay Aberdeenshire