No-deal Brexit could see a ‘fast-tracked’ indyref2
● Tory leadership contenders rule out granting permission ● Sturgeon says blocking vote would be ‘democratic outrage’ ● Opposition accuse SNP of laying ground for ‘wildcat poll’
The Scottish Government could “accelerate” legislation for a second independence referendum in the event of a no - deal Brexit, the SNP’S constitution spokesman has said.
Mike Russell told MSPS at Holyrood that if the UK quits the European Union without a deal there would be “an even greater urgency to give Scotland a choice of a different future”.
With hardliners such as Boris Johnson and Michael Gove now vying to become the next prime minister, the S cottish Co ns titution al Relati ons Secretar y warned they were “heading with pleasure to the cliff-edge” of a no-deal Brexit.
While the S cottish Government’s new bill, laying the framework for future referendums, is due to pass through Holyrood by the end of 2019, Mr Russell said this could b e fasttracked if needed.
After the Referendums (Scotland) Bill was published, he said: “It is the intention of the government to offer
the people of Scotland a choice on independence later in the term of this Parliament.
“Of course, should circumstances change, we would have the option of seeking Parliament’s agreement to proceed at an accelerated timetable.”
With several prominent proBrexit Conservatives hoping to succeed Theresa May, Mr Russell said :“A Boris Johnson premiership is no longer a bad joke, it is a frightening possibility.
“Substitute Raab or Leadsom or Gove or Hancock or any of the others for Johnson and the situation is no better.
“Most are heading with pleasure to the cliff-edge. But Scotland must not be forced against our will togo with them.”
Three Tor y leadership contenders – UK Justice S ecre - tary Sajid Javid, Health Secretary Matt Hancock and International Development Secretary Rory Stewart – reacted to the unveiling of the bill yesterday by ruling out another referendum.
Mr Javid said on Twitter: “If I become PM, I won’t allow a second Scottish in dependenc ere fer end um. People stated views clearly in 2014, so there should be no second vote. Nicola Sturgeon should spend more time improving public services in Scotland, and less time grandstanding.”
Mr Stewart said :“In everything we do and everything we say in this leadership race we should remember that the key is to unify the country and not divide the United Kingdom.”
Mr Hancock said: “The people have spoken. No way, Nicola.”
Ms Sturgeon responded by saying Westminster’s refusal to hand Holyrood the power to stage a second vote on leaving the UK is “unsustainable”.
She tweeted: “Memo to Tory leadership candidates: A majority of Scots–in dependence supporters and op ponents alike – will not accept being told by a Tor y PM that we are not ‘allowed’ to choose our own future.”
Ms Sturgeon had earlier said that it would be a “democratic outrage” if Westminster were to block Scotland from holding a second referendum.
The First Minister said: “Throughout the Brexit process, Scotland has been treated with contempt by Westminster, and our efforts to find compromise and protect the interests of the people of Scotland, who voted overwhelmingly to remain in the EU, have been ignored.”
The bill – which has 42 sections – provides a “legal framework for the holding of referendums on matters that are within the competence of the Scottish Parliament”, accompanying papers said.
These made clear: “The main policy objective of the bill is to ensure that future refer endums on matters that are within the competence of the Scottish Parliament maintain the high standards achieved by the referendum on Scottish independence in 2014.”
They also stipulated that when determining what questions are to be asked of voters, Scottish ministers “must consult the Electoral Commission”.
While having the UK government legislate for future referendums would be an “alternative approach”, Scottish Government papers stated: “This would not be an effective or acceptable option. The Scottish Parliament should set the rules for referendums within its legislative competence, as this is the only legislative approach that respects the rights and role of the Parliament.”
Scottish Conservative constitution spokesman Adam Tomkins said: “In reality, this is Nicola Sturgeon laying the ground for a ‘wildcat’ second referendum on in dependence.” He added: “Under this bill, SNP ministers would have the power to set any referendum question, at any time, on any matter of their choosing. It’s a power grab on an industrial scale.”
Scottish Labour leader Richard Leonard said the Scottish Government was only “seeking to advance the cause of the break-up of the United Kingdom” by publishing the bill.
And Scottish Liberal Democrat leader Willie R en nie said that SNP ministers had “learnt nothing from the chaos of Brexit”.
“Independence will mount chaos on top of the Brexit chaos,” he said. OIL
The crash in the North Sea oil and gas industry of recent years dealt a shattering blow to Scotland’s economy and undermined one of the key arguments at the heart of the campaign for independence.
The situation has evened out now and the oil- and gas-related services industry is still a critical part of Scotland’s “real” economy.
But corporation tax receipts were worth barely £1 billion UKwide last year - the SNP had been predicting up to £7.9bn in North Sea taxes for the Scottish Treasury in the first years of independence, and global prices are stuck at about $70 a barrel, down from more than $110 per barrel at the start of the decade.
DEFICIT
In 2014 the Scottish Government had predicted a deficit of up to £5.5bn. However, the latest official Scottish Government figures
What has changed for Scotland since the 2014 vote?
showed it is closer to £10.3bn. This is 6 per cent of GDP and about three times the UK level. The SNP’S revised economic case for independence seeks to half this.
POLLS
One things which has remained stable in recent years has been support for independence at about the 45 per cent level of the 2014 referendum. Two recent polls even suggested this was closing, with a Panelbase survey for the Sunday Times putting it as high as 49 per cent in favour of independence.
EUROPEAN UNION
The EU made clear in 2014 that an independent Scotland would find itself outside the EU and forced to rejoin as a new state, which could take years. Now, however, EU leaders may be privately content to see the UK break up outside its ranks. A number of leading EU figures, including Belgian MEP Guy Verhofstadt, who was head of the influential Liberal group in Brussels, have indicated that an independent Scotland could be welcomed in.
LEADER
Nicola Sturgeon was at the heart of the 2014 referendum campaign, but it was her predecessor, Alex Salmond, who was the figurehead of the independence push.
His garrulous style was doubtless a factor in the often fractious and divisive debate that characterised the campaign.
Ms Sturgeon herself was involved in several ill-tempered TV debates but has appealed for a more collegiate and measured approach if there is another referendum to win over wavering No voters.