Bill Jamieson
● How did the UK fall out of love with Europe – and what happens now as we negotiate the divorce?
If you think Brexit has been bumpy so far, you haven’t seen anything yet
“Outstanding gains by the Liberal Democrats and the Greens make clear that there is powerful support for ditching Brexit altogether”
“Yes, we knew it was coming but still a painful result. Existential risk to our party unless we now
Brexit resolved after sweeping gains for the Brexit Party in the Euro election? Or a crisis intensified? Far from lancing a giant boil of uncertainty over our affairs, a more divisive and volatile period now stretches before us.
Very little has been settled. The UK now faces a period more turbulent and destabilising than any for more than a century. It is not just that conventional political loyalties have been massively disrupted. There is also a material economic and financial risk – a further slump in investment, a capital exodus and flight from UK assets. Navigating all this is going to require super-human qualities of leadership and bridgebuilding.
Is it really so ominous? Here in Scotland, the hand of the SNP has been mightily strengthened. The result confirms the growing view that Scotland does indeed do politics differently, adding support for a second independence referendum to give expression to that distinctiveness. And this expression will gain even more momentum if, as now seems likely, there is further gridlock and division at Westminster.
The Brexit Party may look as if it has swept all before it. But outstanding gains by the Liberal Democrats and the Greens make clear that there is powerful support for ditching Brexit altogether as the combined tally of votes in several regions for Remain supporting parties ran close to, if not exceeded, that for the Brexit Party.
For the Conservatives, an appalling result is likely
to strengthen the hand of leadership candidates who say they will accept a “No Deal” outcome. This in turn could see more defections. For Labour, who also suffered humiliation, support is horribly divided between north and south. Pressure will grow for the party to move towards Remain and endorse a second referendum. The party’s showing in Scotland was especially dire and poses searching questions for the leadership of Richard Leonard.
With these results, the pending resignation of Prime Minister Theresa May and a vociferous leadership contest in prospect with multiple candidates, it might seem as if we have arrived at a moment of truth. Yet barely had the poll result been declared than both Remainers and Leavers were claiming victory.
Only a few weeks ago, there was a confident belief among some in Westminster that this was just an unpleasant protest vote that would soon blow over. Others argued that the Prime Minister’s resignation rendered the vote inconsequential and irrelevant. It was like listening to passengers on a luxury cruise liner, ensconced in the plush chairs on the upper deck, sipping their pina coladas in the sun and confident they would ride out a rising swell. Few seemed aware that the engines had stopped running and a storm was building on the horizon. Comfort was taken in the repeated mantra that a “No Deal” outcome would be a “catastrophe” and a “disaster” – beyond contemplation. As matters stood, the arithmetic of parliamentary votes still pointed resolutely to the rejection of such an outcome.
The EU also looks highly unlikely to agree either a renegotiation of the thricedefeated Withdrawal Agreement or indeed an extension beyond the latest exit date of 31 October.
In any event, what chance is there of a new Tory leader and radically changed Cabinet being able to negotiate the complexities of a new withdrawal deal acceptable both to parliament and the EU before 31 October? The new team at Number 10 will have barely three months to pull off such a feat. And any further extension to Brexit would again require the approval of all 27 EU member states.
Only a general election