View from Westminster

Paris Gourtsoyannis follows the money

Anew Prime Minister, a new Cabinet, a new way of governing – even a new podium. A lot changed last week when Boris Johnson replaced Theresa May as tenant at 10 Downing Street.

The most significant change, however, is the switch from a government that ultimately – having insisted that “no deal is better than a bad deal” – was unwilling to put the economy and the Union at risk by leaving the EU without an agreement with Brussels.

Now we have a government that is clearly of a different view. It is hard to see Mr Johnson’s administration surviving a u-turn on his hard and fast commitment to Brexit by 31 October.

The government insists a deal is still possible, and that it’s working hard to get one. But if you follow Deepthroat’s advice and “follow the money”, it’s clear where the effort is currently going.

Philip Hammond was accused by Brexiteers of choking off funding for nodeal preparations, even though £4.2 billion was put aside by the previous chancellor. That is now set to be increased by another £1bn, with as much as £100 million spent on a no-deal information campaign alone.

Appointing his Cabinet, Johnson took responsibility for no-deal preparations away from the Brexit department, and gave it to the Cabinet Office, which has the power to pull strings across Whitehall.

To lead those preparations, the Prime Minister chose Michael Gove, the man seen as having the best record at squeezing action out of an ossified civil service.

In the first week of his administration, almost all the rhetoric has been about the government’s willingness to deliver a no-deal, if necessary. The most dramatic statement has been

Gove’s claim that the government would “operate on the assumption” that the EU will not give ground and renegotiate the Brexit deal.

Johnson later walked back those comments, but coming from the man in charge of getting ready, they represent a stark warning about the government’s intent.

Most alarmingly of all, with fewer than 100 days to go until Johnson’s “do or die” Brexit deadline, Downing Street is being open about its strategy of refusing to talk to the EU unless it accepts the need to change the Withdrawal Agreement and drop the backstop. While Johnson might end up speaking to EU leaders individually, it’s been suggested that the first meaningful talks on Brexit may not take place until a summit in Brussels on 17 October – two weeks from the deadline.

That level of brinkmanship lays bare the strategy – and it’s one that Brexiteers were angrily advocating from the sidelines during Theresa May’s administration: make it look like the UK is really, really serious about no-deal, and scare the EU to the table. Downing Street claims opponents of no-deal have no other plan for securing an agreement, but equally, the government ought to concede that its own approach is no more sophisticated than that.

One other thing has changed: the level of preparedness for no-deal. The anticipation of the 29 March deadline led the UK’S traders to secure their supply chains and stockpile raw materials, at significant cost. Many have been unwinding those preparations out of necessity, and simply cannot ramp them up again for a second time in less than a year.

With what looks to be a working majority of one after the summer recess, and with even more anti no-deal votes on the back benches following Johnson’s brutal Cabinet clear-out, the clash with MPS in September will define events for the government, however determined Johnson is to press ahead.

An election? A second EU referendum? One thing remains constant: it doesn’t pay to bet on what happens next.