BATTLE TO QUALIFY: POOL A SCENARIOS

Ireland’s victory over Russia takes Joe Schmidt’s men to the summit of Pool A having played three games but a fascinating battle for the top two berths in the group rages on.

As things stand, Ireland have 11 points in total and three bonus points. Japan sit second on nine points having played two matches and secured one bonus point. Third placed Scotland, also two matches into the tournament and still to play Russia and Japan, have five points and one bonus point, while Samoa also have five points and one bonus point from two games. Russia are bottom with no points from their three games.

The most realistic scenario is that Ireland pick up a fourth bonus point with a win over Samoa and likely top the group with 16 points.

The most Scotland can get to is 15 points, if they claim another two bonus-point wins.

But Japan could go into the final pool match against the Scots in Yokohama on 14 points – if they beat Samoa with four tries. In that case a simple win would do Scotland by virtue of headto-head, unless Japan get a losing bonus point by finishing within seven. The Scots could still be eliminated if they secure a bonus-point win over Japan but the Brave Blossoms lose by seven points or fewer and score four tries during the match.

So how could it all pan out? Scotland could top the group if…

• They record bonus-point wins over Russia and Japan

• Japan defeat Samoa

• Samoa defeat Ireland Even if losing sides all picked up bonus points in their final matches, this could result in a final table of Scotland on 15, Japan on 14, Ireland on 12 and Samoa on 10.

However, if Ireland record a bonuspoint win over Samoa and…

• Scotland record bonus-point wins over Russia and Japan

• Japan defeat Samoa

Again, accounting for losing sides recording bonus points, this would result in a final table of Ireland on

16, Scotland on 15, Japan on 14 and Samoa on 6.

If Ireland beat Samoa but fail to win the bonus point and other results remain the same, they will qualify as pool winners ahead of Scotland by virtue of winning the head-to-head clash between the two teams.

If Ireland record a bonus-point win over Samoa and…

• Scotland beat Russia and Japan but don’t collect two bonus points

• Japan defeat Samoa with a bonus point accounting for losing sides recording bonus points, this would result in a final table of Ireland on

16, Japan on 14, Scotland on 13, and Samoa on 6.

If Ireland record a bonus-point win over Samoa and…

• Scotland beat Russia and Japan and obtain one bonus point

• Japan beat Samoa without a bonus point

This could produce a final table of Ireland on 16, Scotland on 14, Japan on 14 and Samoa on 6 – but in this case, Scotland would qualify having beaten Japan in their head-to-head match.