Only certainty is that things will remain uncertain
Okay dokey – there’s no point in sugar-coating it – after weeks of trying to avoid commenting on the “B” word, NFU Scotland’s conference on Friday past highlighted that there’s one fact about Brexit that probably needs to be spelt out in simple terms:
It ain’t gonna be over anytime soon.
And while getting an agreement on the withdrawal deal – whenever or however that might happen – might be a step forward on the journey, it won’t be an end to the story.
Rather it will simply give the green light for the real negotiations on what our future relationship with Europe will look like to begin in earnest.
And – yes, there’s more – if we ever do get to the stage of actually becoming involved in these discussions, the chances of getting them over and done with before December 2020, as the current Government desires, are incredibly thin. And negotiations are much more likely to last for several years – or even collapse, altogether leaving us with “no deal” months or years down the road.
So sadly no matter how fed up we are of reading (or writing!) about it, Brexit isn’t going to go away any time soon.
And although the farming audience missed no opportunity at the conference to hammer home just how much the industry needs certainty to plan ahead– the truth is there’s no quick fix on the books.
While the opposing politicians at the union’s bash didn’t cast much light on the subject over and above the playground squabble level party lines we’ve all stopped listening to a long time ago, it was the head of the UK’S joint farming union’s office in Brussels, Maeve Whyte, who dealt out the possibly unpalatable facts.
And while she remained professionally neutral she revealed that those in Brussels’ corridors of power have been shocked by the UK’S machinations over the whole Brexit farrago.
For despite sometimes adopting a stand-offish attitude, the British Government had a reputation for being strong and stable and, even if sometimes a bit “stiff upper lipped”, could be relied on for their probity and integrity.
So the shenanigans of the past three years have taken them totally by surprise.
But, reputation apart, it also looks like the UK will face some stiff competition when/if we do eventually settle down and roll up the sleeves to hammer out a trade deal which will define our future relationship with the continent and with it the terms under which the farming industry will be able to work with their biggest trading partner.
For, while the UK has not been directly involved in drawing up trade deals for over forty years, as one of the world’s biggest trading blocks, the EU has a team of crack negotiators who have honed their skills to an extreme level – or as union president Andrew Mccornick put it, “We’ll be negotiating against the people who have been doing the negotiating for us for the past four decades”.
The team will ostensibly be handled by the EU’S new trade commissioner, Phil Hogan – who is well known as a canny operator and who knows the ins and outs of both agriculture and UK politics – but the discussions will still be overseen by Michel Barnier – who has been described as a “world-class Ninja negotiator”.
While the third high-level figure involved in the talks might be relatively unknown in the UK, Sabine Weyand, who might be considered “The Brains” of the operation, has a scary reputation for carrying out negotiations - and has been known to tear journalists to pieces with her mastery of technical detail.
So drawing up an overall deal is unlikely to be a fiveminute walk in the park for UK negotiators.
There might, however, be a brief respite for the farming industry if a withdrawal deal is eventually agreed - as the transition period which will give us continued frictionless access to EU markets will kick in.
However this small consolation would only be guaranteed until December 2020 – and even if it was extended there are many uncertainties about the ground rules, with Mccornick stating that it remained unclear whether the UK would need to remain aligned with current EU regulations or would have to be dragged along on the coat tails on the policy decision of current reforms of the CAP.
So, sadly, the only certainty is that things will remain uncertain for some time to come…